931
FXUS64 KMAF 121150
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
650 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 650 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions persist
  through tomorrow. Low (10-30%) rain chances are forecast mainly
  over SE NM and areas out west this evening.

- A series of upper level disturbances will bring an increasing
  chance (30-70%) of showers and thunderstorms over much of the
  region tomorrow through much of the week. We will be monitoring
  for heavy rainfall/localized flash flooding potential as well
  as for a few strong to severe storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Today and Tuesday will be the warmest days with highs in the upper
80s to low 90s for most as ridging and southerly flow hold on across
the region. Increasing moisture and lift provided by the higher
terrain to the west will be enough to get a storm or two developed
during the afternoon and evening. Overnight lows settle into the 60s
to low 70s. Heading into Tuesday, the large upper low to the west of
the area begins to encroach on the CWA with moisture continuing to
pull in from the south. Efficient rain in these storms will lead to
localized flash flooding of low lying and poor draining areas. Ample
moisture, some instability, and some shear may help organize a
couple storms and make them strong to severe capable of producing
damaging winds and small hail.

A break in convection looks to occur during the early hours of
Tuesday, but another round of activity looks to develop that
afternoon. For the early morning, isolated to scattered storms
develop over the high terrain or across SE NM. During the afternoon,
the focus shifts further east across the Permian Basin and to areas
south of I-10. Given the isolated nature of the convection, rain
amounts will vary greatly as some spots under the heaviest storms
could quickly see an inch of rain whereas others see much less.
Further rounds of rain are possible beyond Tuesday, read the long
term forecast for more details.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

The start of the Long Term period shall be marked by an active
weather pattern. Tomorrow evening into Wednesday night, an upper
level low translates over the Great Basin toward the Rockies.
Meanwhile, the upper ridge responsible for recent above normal
temperatures drifts eastward over the southeastern CONUS. Rich
moisture from what is currently Hurricane Simon will be entrained
within southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a trough looks to
extend from the western Texas Panhandle down into the Big Bend
tomorrow evening, drawing Gulf moisture toward our region. As such,
ensembles suggest PWAT values between 1.25-1.8" over far SE NM, the
Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos, the Davis Mountains, and the Big
Bend tomorrow evening and overnight. Provided this materializes, we
will have to monitor for the potential of heavy rainfall and a
subsequent flash flood threat. CAMs depict nearly areawide rounds of
scattered to numerous (30-70% chance) showers/storms headed from
southwest to northeast through tomorrow night. Aside from heavy
rainfall, CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, bulk shear values of 25-35
kts, and mid-level lapse rates of 6-7 C/km will support a couple of
strong to severe storms tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning.
The primary threats with the strongest storms, outside of flash
flooding, will be small hail and damaging winds.

A similar set up looks to play out Wednesday and Wednesday night, as
the upper low gradually opens up and lifts over the Rockies into the
Central and Northern Plains. The best rain chances shift slightly
eastward compared to Tuesday, though still encompass much of the
same areas. Again, rounds of scattered to numerous (30-70% chance)
showers/storms are forecast over the Big Bend, the Trans Pecos, far
SE NM, and the Permian Basin Wednesday into Wednesday night. With
PWAT values remaining roughly similar to Tuesday`s, instances of
flash flooding will again be a hazard to monitor during this time
frame. The potential for severe storm development will focus more
over the Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos, and far SE NM Wednesday
afternoon and evening. In these areas, a couple of storms will be
capable of producing damaging winds and small hail. Otherwise,
temperatures Wednesday afternoon shall largely top out in the 80s,
with 90s near and along the Rio Grande.

Thursday, the shortwave upper trough lifts over the Central Plains
and heads east, while a longwave trough resides over the Desert
Southwest. Deep moisture will continue within southwesterly flow
aloft, while a cold front slowly drops down across the Plains. The
cold front itself is expected to sweep through our area Thursday
night into Friday. However, ahead of the front, disturbances aloft
combines with deep moisture, promoting additional scattered to
numerous shower and storm development. The potential for heavy
rainfall and resultant flash flooding persists Thursday into
Thursday night, especially along the frontal boundary. Rain chances
begin to taper down from east to west Friday into Friday night, as a
cooler and drier air mass is ushered in behind the cold front. Highs
Friday and Saturday are forecast to reach the 60s for most
locations, with 50s in and near the higher terrain. Lows Friday
night and Saturday night generally dip into the 40s. Highs then
rebound into the 60s and 70s Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR continues through the day at all sites. Southeasterly winds
with occasional gusts between 15-20kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               92  71  94  71 /   0   0  30  50
Carlsbad                 93  67  91  66 /  10  10   0  10
Dryden                   91  73  93  73 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton            95  70  94  69 /   0  10  60  60
Guadalupe Pass           82  63  80  63 /   0  10   0  10
Hobbs                    90  67  89  66 /   0  20   0  70
Marfa                    87  63  87  62 /   0  20  20  70
Midland Intl Airport     90  71  92  71 /   0   0  30  50
Odessa                   91  72  92  71 /   0  10  40  60
Wink                     95  71  93  70 /   0  10  30  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93