000
FXUS63 KPAH 200546 CCA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1246 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...Updated for 06z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will persist overnight. Some of the storms will be
  severe with damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.

- A small (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms is
  forecast Thursday afternoon, and other small chances are
  sprinkled in through the weekend and into next week.

- Temperatures will generally be a few degrees below normal
  through the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Well, today`s convection has lingered longer over more of the
Quad State than expected, and the complete lack of warming
certainly is concerning for the possibility of any significant
severe storms this evening or overnight. There is still a strong
north or northeasterly push at the surface to the south over
southern Tennessee and eastern Arkansas, so the better airmass
will not have much time to get back north over the Quad State.
Therefore, the CAPE forecasts for this evening are likely
overdone. The shear will be there, but if we struggle to get
surface-based convection, much of it may not be realized.

The CAMs have not had a clue about today`s convection, so it
would be dangerous to accept their solutions for tonight.
However, they have been consistently hammering on the 6-8 PM
period for storms to reach far northwestern portions of the Quad
State, with the northern extent over Perry and Jackson Counties
in Illinois. Storms would then move east southeast across the
region generally south of a Duquoin Illinois to Greenville
Kentucky line. Northeast of this line storms cannot be ruled
out, but given that that area will be farther from the better
surface air mass, severe storms are much less likely. There is
some sign of storms developing along I-64 into the overnight
hours. Those storms would move east southeast and dissipate by
sunrise over the Tri State.

If severe storms develop it would most likely be over Southeast
Missouri where air mass recovery would presumably be most
likely. The CAPE and shear space advertised by the CAMs would
support all modes of severe, but there has been a strong
tendency for bow echoes in the models with a more significant
damaging wind threat. If a west northwest to east southeast
boundary develops on the northeast edge of the better airmass, a
greater tornado threat could develop along it. Once again this
appears to be most likely over southeast Missouri, possibly into
the Purchase Area of west Kentucky.

The timing for tonight could be delayed a few hours which would
allow more time for air mass recovery, so it will not be
surprising if storms don`t reach the area until 9 PM or later
and then possibly last til around 2 or 3 AM before exiting west
Kentucky depending on how far northeast the better air mass
makes it.

The storms tonight should move along at a good clip, but we will
have to watch for swaths of torrential rains and possibly
flooding impacts. This morning`s storms produced a swath of 2-3"
over Sikeston Missouri and northeast into Wayne and Bollinger
counties. This area will be quite susceptible to flash flooding
with any storms tonight.

The convection should be done by daybreak Thursday, but an
upper-level trough over the Quad State will keep a small chance
of showers and storms going Thursday afternoon. Behind this
trough, we will remain under a somewhat busy cyclonic northwest
flow aloft. This will bring the possibility of some convection
attempting to dive southeast over the Quad State over the
weekend and into the first half of next week. The models are not
handling individual disturbances very well, which results in the
NBM spreading a lot of 15-30% PoPs across portions of the region
from Friday night through next Wednesday. At least the northwest
flow aloft will keep temperatures at or below normal for late
August, which is quite welcome after last week`s heat wave.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

TSRA will continue to plague KCGI and KPAH terminals over the
next several hours before gradually diminishing. Severe risk
appears to be largely confined to the south of both terminals,
but can`t rule out some gusty winds and even some hail with any
stronger elevated cores. Conditions will drop to MVFR and IFR in
the TSRA with localized LIFR possible. KOWB will be on the
northern fringes of any precipitation and continued to handle
the potential with PROB30 mention for now, but will amend if it
trends or develops northward and probability for impact
increases. Low level moisture and light flow will present the
potential for some low clouds and fog late tonight and Thursday
AM. Some uncertainty on extent due to considerable debris
cloudiness overhead, but stayed the course with previous TAFs
for now with MVFR to local IFR conditions 10z-16z. Thereafter,
expect improvement to VFR with light NNE winds in the wake of a
cold front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ILZ084>094.
MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...None.
KY...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...WFO DVN