


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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292 FXUS65 KPUB 171114 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 514 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost this morning across the Palmer Divide, with more patchy frost possible again tonight, though coverage is likely to be more limited. - Widespread frost possible by Sunday morning across the Plains, with a 30-40 percent chance of a freeze. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 322 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Dry air has overspread the region as a cold front has pushed through the southeast plains overnight. We will sill have a few hours this morning with frost potential along the Palmer Divide and northern El Paso county as winds decouple and temperatures dip to around freezing. Temperatures will slowly warm under mostly sunny skies this afternoon. With cooler air aloft associated with the upper trough and post frontal upslope flow on the plains, temperatures today will be around 5 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday, with the greatest cool down across the eastern plains. Winds will be light and generally diurnally driven and it will remain dry for all areas. As the upper tough axis moves into the central plains tonight, increasing northwest flow aloft will cause winds across the high country to increase. Should see some breezy west to northwest winds spread down the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains and Sawatch range towards morning. This should keep temperatures slightly warmer in the banana belt regions. Otherwise, it will be another crisp cool night for the higher mountains, decoupled interior valleys, and eastern plains and we could be flirting with frost or a light freeze across the Palmer Divide and portions of eastern El Paso and Pueblo counties Sat AM. Probability looks too low (less than 15%) and coverage too limited for another round of Frost highlights tonight. Increase wave cloudiness may also help keep temperatures elevated some. However it will be another crisp cool morning with lows in the teens and 20s across the mountains and valleys and mid 30s to mid 40s across the plains. -KT && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 322 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Good agreement remains in place with the operational models with continued low ensemble spreads through the extended period. The main changes are with the upper low forecast to drift across the region mid to late week. Saturday...a quick moving upper shortwave trough will glance across northern Colorado on Saturday. This will send a frontal boundary by the afternoon, with gusty winds near 25 to 30 mph possible late in the day. Overall, temperatures will warm into upper 60s to lower 70s across the Plains. Saturday night through Monday...the upper shortwave will continue off to the east with weak northwesterly flow filling in across the state Saturday night. Model guidance continues to come in cooler, and overnight lows on the Plains will fall to near freezing by Sunday morning. Widespread frost will be possible on the Plains, and we may need freeze highlights if model guidance continues to trend cooler, or remain in the lower 30s. Those with sensitive outdoor plants and exposed hoses and pipes may want to take precautions to protect them. The next upper shortwave is forecast to move across Wyoming into the Central Plains Sunday into Monday. Again, this system looks to stay mostly northeast of our warning area. Westerly afternoon mixing will help temperatures warming through the 70s across the Plains Sunday afternoon. Spotty fire weather conditions may also be possible in gap flow areas. Overnight, the system is forecast to shift to our east, with a period of stronger winds spreading across the Central Mountains, into the Wet Mountains. The GFS has a few 50 kt flags at 700 mb, but the flow aloft is strong and is more northwesterly. That being said, an isolated gusts near 50 mph may be possible late Sunday night into Monday morning. The upper system will continue east on Monday, with northwesterly flow producing breezy conditions across the Plains. Temperatures will remain warm, with mostly 70s across the lower elevations. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain in place, mainly for the I-25 corridor. Upper ridging will build across the area Monday night, with winds weakening. Overnight lows Monday night into Tuesday morning will fall into the lower to mid 30s across the Plains, and frost will be possible. Tuesday and Wednesday...upper ridging will spread across the area on Tuesday, while an upper low over southern California begins to shift eastward by Wednesday. Overall, temperatures will be slightly cooler during this period, with mid 60s to lower 70s for the lower elevations. Overnight lows look to remain mild, with upper 30s to lower 40s. A few rain and snow shower will be possible by Wednesday afternoon across the San Juan Range, as flow aloft switching southwesterly. Thursday into Friday...models diverge a bit late in the forecast period with the handling of the upper low. The GFS is the fastest solution, with a track across southern Colorado, with the ECMWF and Canadian are a bit slower and weaker with the system. Rain and snow chances look to increase a bit for the Mountains for late in the week, with a few possible moving into the adjacent Plains, but overall confidence in precipitation is low at this time. Temperatures may also cool on the Plains, however, NBM guidance is warm, and may need to be lowered as we move forward in time. Mozley && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 502 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours at all three TAF sites with light diurnally driven winds. KCOS may see a brief period of southerly winds in the 10-20 kt range this afternoon before returning to light northerly winds during the evening. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ084. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...KT