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FXUS65 KPUB 071112
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
512 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another hot day on tap today, with slightly better chances for
  some shower and thunderstorm activity.

- Best chance for more widespread convection will be Tuesday and
  Wednesday, with cooling temperatures.

- Conditions dry out for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1230 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Upper trough of low pressure continues over the Pacific NW with the
low center rotating across ID into western MT. Meanwhile, the upper
ridge persists over the south central US. Broad southwest flow aloft
across the Four Corners and CO remains in place.

Currently...A decent amount of mid and high level cloudiness across
the region tonight under southwest flow, with shower activity
continuing across western CO. A mild night is expected, with low
temps dropping into the 50s for the high valleys and 60s to around
70F for the plains.

Today and tonight...Southwest flow across the Four Corners continues
through the day today, while the upper low center to the north
pushes across MT and a secondary low center forms back over eastern
WA. This will set the stage for expected weather for Tue and Wed.
For today, moisture streaming across CO will have better upper
support leading to a bit more shower and storm activity through the
afternoon and evening. Shower activity currently across western CO
is expected to gradually push east this morning, with isolated
showers along the Continental Divide to start the day. By late
morning, as the day rapidly heats up, this activity will spread east
to all of the higher terrain, then cross the I-25 Corridor and push
into the eastern plains through the afternoon and evening. Shower
and thunderstorm activity will be come more scattered along the
Continental Divide and Pikes Peak region this afternoon, and even be
likely at times, with the main storm threats being gusty outflow
winds to 45 mph and cloud to ground lightning. Storms should be
moving at a good clip, so flash flood potential is lower, but given
the increased coverage, area burn scars will need to be monitored.
Convection should diminish for most areas by midnight. Another thing
to note is that southerly surface winds will be on the increase
across the eastern plains this afternoon, and at times will get
somewhat gusty, in the 30 to 40 mph range, closer to the eastern
border through the late afternoon and evening.

As for temps today, at the risk of sounding like a broken record,
another very hot day with highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and
90s to 100F for the plains. Minimum temps tonight into early Tue
morning will cool into the upper 40s to lower 50s for the high
valleys, and upper 50s to upper 60s for the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Tuesday...Upper ridge starts to flatten and migrate west back across
the Desert SW, shifting the flow aloft to a more westerly direction.
This opens the door for an initial weak cold front, from the first
upper low center moving across MT, to drop south and reach the
forecast area Tue morning. While this front should cool max temps by
about 3-4 degrees across the plains, favorable llvl wind flow will
help spark more convection across the higher terrain and plains,
with a focus on the eastern mts and I-25 Corridor by late afternoon
into the early evening. The Aspen Acres and 24 burn scars will need
to be monitored closely for potential stronger storm development
since storm movement will likely be somewhat slower. Plan on highs
in the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the
plains.

Wednesday...Flat upper ridge remains across the southern US, with
the high center building back across northern AZ. At the same time,
the second low center to the north pushing along the MT and Canada
border late Tue night will drop a stronger cold front south into
eastern CO. This will aid in even more cooling across the eastern
plains, as well as another round of enhanced convective activity
though it may be slightly delayed. Initially, showers and storms
will likely develop along the southern border and in the vicinity of
the southern Sangres, Trinidad and Walsenburg in the afternoon. As
the surface winds then shift to a more east to southeast direction,
then activity will develop northward across all of the plains and
along the I-25 Corridor. This will be another day of watching area
burn scars for potential flooding. Expect high temps in the 80s for
most locations.

Thursday and Friday...Broad upper ridge will remain in place across
the Desert SW to end the work week, providing for essentially zonal
flow aloft, a gradual warming trend and very dry conditions, with
just isolated convection forecast both days.

Saturday and Sunday...Long range models seem to agree on shifting
the upper high to the east in the southeastern US over the weekend,
allowing another strong low pressure system to drop down out of the
Pacific NW. This will bring a cooling trend with better chances for
widespread moisture, starting on Saturday but moreso for Sunday.
Moore

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

KALS...VFR conditions through much of the forecast period.
Southwest winds near 12 kts are expected this afternoon. Model
guidance moves shower activity northeast across the terminal
overnight, with reduced CIGS possible after 08z.

KCOS and KPUB...south to southeast winds will develop by late
morning to early afternoon at both terminals. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid to late afternoon
possibly impacting each terminal with reduced CIGS and gusty
winds. This activity should move away from the terminals by
early evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY