292
FXUS65 KPUB 171114
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
514 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost this morning across the Palmer Divide, with more patchy
  frost possible again tonight, though coverage is likely to be
  more limited.

- Widespread frost possible by Sunday morning across the Plains,
  with a 30-40 percent chance of a freeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 322 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Dry air has overspread the region as a cold front has pushed through
the southeast plains overnight.  We will sill have a few hours this
morning with frost potential along the Palmer Divide and northern El
Paso county as winds decouple and temperatures dip to around
freezing. Temperatures will slowly warm under mostly sunny skies
this afternoon.  With cooler air aloft associated with the upper
trough and post frontal upslope flow on the plains, temperatures
today will be around 5 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday, with the
greatest cool down across the eastern plains. Winds will be light and
generally diurnally driven and it will remain dry for all areas.

As the upper tough axis moves into the central plains tonight,
increasing northwest flow aloft will cause winds across the high
country to increase.  Should see some breezy west to northwest winds
spread down the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains and
Sawatch range towards morning.  This should keep temperatures
slightly warmer in the banana belt regions.  Otherwise, it will be
another crisp cool night for the higher mountains, decoupled
interior valleys, and eastern plains and we could be flirting with
frost or a light freeze across the Palmer Divide and portions of
eastern El Paso and Pueblo counties Sat AM. Probability looks too
low (less than 15%) and coverage too limited for another round of
Frost highlights tonight.  Increase wave cloudiness may also help
keep temperatures elevated some.  However it will be another crisp
cool morning with lows in the teens and 20s across the mountains and
valleys and mid 30s to mid 40s across the plains. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Good agreement remains in place with the operational models with
continued low ensemble spreads through the extended period. The
main changes are with the upper low forecast to drift across the
region mid to late week.

Saturday...a quick moving upper shortwave trough will glance
across northern Colorado on Saturday. This will send a frontal
boundary by the afternoon, with gusty winds near 25 to 30 mph
possible late in the day. Overall, temperatures will warm
into upper 60s to lower 70s across the Plains.

Saturday night through Monday...the upper shortwave will
continue off to the east with weak northwesterly flow filling in
across the state Saturday night. Model guidance continues to
come in cooler, and overnight lows on the Plains will fall to
near freezing by Sunday morning. Widespread frost will be
possible on the Plains, and we may need freeze highlights if
model guidance continues to trend cooler, or remain in the lower
30s. Those with sensitive outdoor plants and exposed hoses and
pipes may want to take precautions to protect them.

The next upper shortwave is forecast to move across Wyoming into
the Central Plains Sunday into Monday. Again, this system looks
to stay mostly northeast of our warning area. Westerly afternoon
mixing will help temperatures warming through the 70s across
the Plains Sunday afternoon. Spotty fire weather conditions may
also be possible in gap flow areas. Overnight, the system is
forecast to shift to our east, with a period of stronger winds
spreading across the Central Mountains, into the Wet Mountains.
The GFS has a few 50 kt flags at 700 mb, but the flow aloft is
strong and is more northwesterly. That being said, an isolated
gusts near 50 mph may be possible late Sunday night into Monday
morning. The upper system will continue east on Monday, with
northwesterly flow producing breezy conditions across the
Plains. Temperatures will remain warm, with mostly 70s across
the lower elevations. Elevated fire weather conditions will
remain in place, mainly for the I-25 corridor. Upper ridging
will build across the area Monday night, with winds weakening.
Overnight lows Monday night into Tuesday morning will fall into
the lower to mid 30s across the Plains, and frost will be
possible.

Tuesday and Wednesday...upper ridging will spread across the
area on Tuesday, while an upper low over southern California
begins to shift eastward by Wednesday. Overall, temperatures
will be slightly cooler during this period, with mid 60s to
lower 70s for the lower elevations. Overnight lows look to
remain mild, with upper 30s to lower 40s. A few rain and snow
shower will be possible by Wednesday afternoon across the
San Juan Range, as flow aloft switching southwesterly.

Thursday into Friday...models diverge a bit late in the forecast
period with the handling of the upper low. The GFS is the
fastest solution, with a track across southern Colorado, with
the ECMWF and Canadian are a bit slower and weaker with the
system. Rain and snow chances look to increase a bit for the
Mountains for late in the week, with a few possible moving into
the adjacent Plains, but overall confidence in precipitation is
low at this time. Temperatures may also cool on the Plains,
however, NBM guidance is warm, and may need to be lowered as we
move forward in time.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 502 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours at all three TAF
sites with light diurnally driven winds. KCOS may see a brief
period of southerly winds in the 10-20 kt range this afternoon
before returning to light northerly winds during the evening.
-KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT