366
FXUS65 KPUB 071117
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
417 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated snow showers in the central mtns, otherwise dry and a bit
  cooler today.

- Main concern is the long term, especially this THU and FRI as
  lots of uncertainty temps/precip these days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 210 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Currently...Snow showers were still noted over the central mtns as
Leadville ASOS and spotters were indicating snow still ongoing this
location, along with the Monarch CDOT webcam still showing light
snow. Additionally, Radar was showing some echoes over the plains,
but doubt if any of this is reaching the ground. Temps early this
morning were generally in the U20s to L30s plains with 20s in the
valleys and single digits and 10s higher terrain. Winds were pretty
light region-wide.

Not much going on in the short term. Strong to moderate NW flow
continues at mid levels, however a short wave ridge in this flow
will cross the region later today and this will bring dry weather to
the region. It will be a bit cooler today as compared to yesterday,
but winds overall will be much less. Overall, we will be a few
degrees below seasonable values across the region today.

Tonight will be dry and chilly, with mins in the U10s to M20s plains
and single digits and 10s mtns and valleys. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 210 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

The main concern is what is going to happen Thursday and Friday
across the region. For Monday through Wednesday, we will see a
modest warming trend across the region, with temps reaching the 50s
to around 60 over the plains bey Wednesday. Isolated snow showers
will be possible in the central mtns Monday and Tuesday, becoming
more widespread by Wednesday. The remainder of the region will
remain dry. Breezy conditions are likely across the region,
especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

Looking at the DESI statistical guidance, it appears the guidance
products in the mid to long range are having an issue on the
movement of an arctic air mass moving down across the north central
part of the country during the THU and FRI time frame. Some of the
members show max temps as low as the 20s for Friday while other
members are as the 50s for the same day. Looking at the
deterministic data, this is due to the location of an arctic air
mass dropping south across the central part of the country. As an
example, GFS is much farther west and has a 1050 arctic high pushing
into the MT/Dakotas while the EC guidance is farther east with this
system.

Precip could also be an issue on these two days, If the cold air is
farther west, then it could be cold and cloudy on the plains with
light snow. The central mtns could see wind driven heavier snow. If
the cold air remains farther east, then sunny skies are likely on
the plains with a few snow showers central mtns.

For the weekend, DESI statistical guidance is showing much less
variability, with mild temperatures across the region as rigging
develops aloft over the fcst area. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 413 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

VFR conditions are likely during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be quite light and
generally diurnally driven.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH