771
FXUS65 KPUB 162103
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
203 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quick round of mountain snows and strong winds will impact the area
  through tonight. Intense snowfall rates and impacts to travel
  will be possible for the Eastern San Juans and Wolf Creek
  Pass.

- Gusty winds over the I-25 corridor on Monday with gusts up to
  35 mph.

- Potential for a higher impact system arrives on Thursday with
  heavy snow over the mountains and low possibility of snow over
  the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Currently...Upper low centered over NV this afternoon was gradually
pushing to the E-NE, while drawing a decent feed of moisture up
across the Four Corners and into western CO. Clouds have been on the
increase across the SW mts today, while much of the area was
reporting brisk S to SW surface winds. Temps as of 1 PM have warmed
into the 60s for the high valleys, and mid 60s to mid 70s across the
plains.

Tonight...Models agree that the upper low will continue sliding to
the E-NE tonight, moving across UT through the night and reaching
the CO/WY border by early Monday morning. As previous shift
mentioned, this system is expected to bring a fast-moving wave of
wind-driven snow and potentially isolated embedded thunderstorms
across the Eastern San Juan Mts this evening, with the window of
greatest effects in the 00z-04z time frame, which is 5 PM to 9 PM.
Models are pointing to a couple hundred j/kg of available CAPE
across the areas as well as abundant shear, so any thunderstorms
that do crop up will greatly increase snowfall rates, and combined
with forecast strong SW winds will lead to brief snow squall
occurrences. Travel across Wolf Creek Pass late this afternoon and
evening may be tricky. Total snow amounts across the SW mts are in
the 4 to 8 inch range for tonight into early Monday morning, while
the remained of the Continental Divide may see 2-4 inches of new
snow. As the upper low continues tracking to the E-NE, the wave of
instability will sweep across the San Luis Valley and the eastern
mts. Alamosa and the San Luis Valley may see some light rain showers
this evening, and the peaks of the eastern mts will likely receive 1-
3 inches of new wind-driven snow. The ongoing Winter Weather
Advisory for the Eastern San Juans looks good due to the potential
travel impacts of the wind-driven snow, while the remaining higher
terrain should see much lighter amounts so additional highlights do
not seem necessary.

This will be fast-moving, so much of the accumulating snow should be
done by midnight. Strong but brief wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will
be possible across the peaks and eastern slopes of the eastern mts,
so residents in those areas should make sure light outdoor items are
secured for tonight and Monday morning. As for overnight low temps,
plan on minimums in the 20s and 30s for the high valleys, and mid
30s to lower 40s for the plains.

Monday...The upper low tracks east along the CO/WY border and into
the NE Panhandle through the day. A tight pressure gradient on the
south-side of the upper low will keep strong westerly flow in place
for much of the forecast area through the day, with much of the
eastern plains and especially the normal gap-flow spots seeing west
winds gusting to 25-35 mph for much of the afternoon. Thankfully,
forecast relative humidity levels are staying just above critical
thresholds so a Fire Weather highlight is not anticipated. However,
given the strong westerly winds forecast, any sort of outdoor
burning is not recommended for Monday. Expect afternoon high temps
in the mid 40s to lower 50s for the high valleys, and 60s to around
70F for the plains which is around 10 degrees above seasonal
normals. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Tuesday and Wednesday:

A couple of less active weather days are expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday, as upper level ridging and height rises form over
Colorado. Perhaps some showers over the eastern San Juans on
Wednesday afternoon as the next closed low begins to impact the
Continental Divide. Temperatures will still remain well above
average for this time of year with high temperatures in the upper
50s to upper 60s over the plains and the 40s to 50s over the
mountain valleys.

Thursday through Saturday:

This is where the forecast get pretty uncertain, though there are
some consistencies between guidance that needs to be pointed out.
The first is that extended guidance resolves some sort of wave
beginning to impact the western half of the region on Wednesday and
passing over the plains on Thursday. So there is expected to be
impacts from the wave passing of some sort and a cool down. However,
the difference begins to show itself in the intensity and track. The
GFS has the most aggressive solution with a proper rapidly
intensifying cyclone developing over the High Plains bringing
widespread rainfall over southern Colorado and snow over the Palmer
Divide and the Raton Mesa (and of course the mountains), whereas the
ECMWF has more an open wave. The ECMWF outputs low amounts of snow
over the mountains, no snow over the plains, and a lot less
rainfall. I am unsure of which one is more correct, but there is
plenty of time to iron out the details.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1036 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Upper low pressure system over the Great Basin will sweep across the
Four Corners this afternoon and evening, bringing a line of showers
and embedded thunderstorms across the SW mts late afternoon. This
activity will sweep across the San Luis Valley and affect KALS
during the evening, bringing a chance for -SHRA at KALS as well as
wind gusts to 45 kts in the 02z-05z time frame. Winds will then
lessen through the early morning hours of Monday.

As this upper disturbance pushes east, gusty winds will reach the
eastern mts and eastern slopes through the overnight hours, directly
west of KCOS and KPUB terminals. Precipitation is not expected, but
intermittent gusts up to 35 kts possible after 06z. Mentioned Wind
shera for KCOS 05z-10z, and for KPUB starting at 14z which may need
to be adjusted later his afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday for COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...MOORE