566
FXUS65 KPUB 110458
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1058 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight through
  Sunday morning across the mountains, and a few showers may
  drift across the I-25 corridor and southeast plains during the
  day on Saturday

- Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be possible over
  the eastern San Juans.

- Drier Sunday, then occasional showers possible across the
  mountains for much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Currently, waves of showers moving through the mountains this
afternoon as deep tropical moisture streams into Colorado. Have
seen very little in the way of lighting with activity today,
which is not surprising given tropical origin of the incoming
air mass, though will keep at least a low chance of thunder in
the forecast overnight as stronger storms could produce a strike
or two. Models do suggest a bit of a lull in activity for a time
this evening, before next wave of showers moves into the swrn
mountains toward midnight, then eastward across the area into
Saturday morning. Still appears best forcing and heaviest
rainfall will be over the eastern San Juans, where overnight
amounts of a half inch will be possible. Rain chances overnight
taper off farther north and east, with just scattered showers
over the eastern mountains, and mostly dry conditions along I-25
and across the sern plains.

On Saturday, wave of rainfall reaches the I-25 corridor in the
morning as it weakens/dissipates, and with enough CAMs showing
at least some light rain possible away from the mountains, will
introduce some low pops for showers along the Interstate for the
morning hours. Next wave of showers/isolated t-storms will
already be along the Continental Divide by midday, with activity
again moving eastward through the mountains/valleys late
morning/early afternoon, then across the I-25 corridor and
potentially the southeast plains late in the day. While not all
models show precip east of I-25 in the afternoon, an increasing
number of CAMs show enough activity to warrant the introduction
of low pops for showers Sat afternoon from I-25 eastward, though
confidence in this solution is rather low, so will keep rain
coverage isolated for now. Again, heaviest rainfall will be
along the Continental Divide, where daytime totals could reach
over an inch, especially higher west facing slopes (i.e. near
Wolf Creek/Cumbres Passes). Max temps will continue to be well
above average, with 70s/80s widespread at lower elevations,
60s/70s mountains.

Did make one change to the longer term forecast, and extended
the Flash Flood Watch until 12z Sunday for the eastern San
Juans, as many models show one last wave of heavier precip after
midnight, before activity tapers off to scattered light showers
later Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Saturday Night - Thursday: For the rest of the long term
period, unsettled weather continues for south central and
southeastern Colorado. Southwesterly flow will remain in place
over the area as broad longwave troughing sits across the
western US, with embedded shortwaves drifting near/over the
region. While model guidance is in good agreement about the
overall broader troughing, there is still some uncertainty in
how the embedded shortwaves will eventually evolve and influence
the area, especially during midweek, lowering forecast
confidence a tad. With that said though, this pattern is
expected to bring increased forcing, with at least modest
moisture remaining in place. Given the forcing and moisture,
showers are anticipated to continue on and off along the higher
terrain, with some spill over across the valleys and plains
possible. Precipitation chance may increase to become more
areawide late Monday and into Tuesday though as another
northward surge in moisture takes place, though this will be
highly dependent on how one of the shortwaves evolves during
this timeframe. Beyond all of that, periods of heightened cloud
cover and breezy winds will persist, especially as the
shortwaves influence the region. As for temperatures. Sunday
will be a repeat of Saturday, with warm and above seasonal
temperatures across the plains, and seasonal values for the
valleys and mountains. Then for Monday onward, a drop in
temperatures is anticipated as a cold front pushes southward
early in the week, bringing below to near seasonal temperatures
to entire region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Rounds of showers will spread off the mountains and into the
adjacent TAF sites with the best chance for -SHRA at KALS
overnight and again Saturday afternoon. There could be brief
MVFR conditions at KALS overnight...but cigs will likely stay
VFR on Saturday. Although less certain, KPUB and KCOS will carry
PROB30 for -SHRA Saturday afternoon. Southerly winds will
increase at all three TAF sites during the late morning with
gustier winds possible with a line of showers during the late
morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 to 30 mph will be
possible. Showers should clear to the east of the TAF sites
during the evening. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late Saturday night for COZ067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT