Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230146

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
846 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Issued at 846 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Minor adjustments made to T/Td/Wind to reflect current trends,
with more substantial changes to sky cover to reflect
extent/progression of mid level deck this evening. Light returns
on radar associated with virga at most, and not expected to
reach surface. No changes made to PoP/Wx.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Temps will gradually fall back into the upper 30s and low 40s
tonight. Winds will also decrease this evening and begin to turn
to the north in the overnight as a weak trough pushes south.
Increased RHs in the mid levels suggests some cloud cover
overnight helping keep the mins in the 40s. For Monday another
day with more sun than clouds though clouds will be on the
increase from the west for the afternoon. Still expecting highs in
the mid 60s along and south of the slow advancing wind shift.
Cooler to the north with upper and lo 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Northwest flow aloft will keep the region mostly dry with the
exception of a couple of light rain chances that accompany passing
cold fronts this week. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to
slightly above normal with a couple of days slightly below normal in
the wake of a pair of cold fronts. Normal temperatures for the area
are highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the lower to mid 30s.

After Monday`s cold front will pushes south of the region, a weak
surface wave will pass through South Dakota on Tuesday bringing
light rain chances the portions of the southern forecast area.
Better chances for rain reside in southeast North Dakota. By late
Tuesday a high pressure will settle into the region allowing for dry
conditions area wide.

Wednesday will be dry and windy ahead of a cold frontal passage and
parent mid-level shortwave trough late Wednesday into Thursday. Ahead
of this cold front, gusty southwest winds are expected to form as
efficient diurnal mixing transports winds aloft (925 mb winds AOA
30kts). Highest winds look to reside in northeastern North Dakota.
Warm temperatures into the 60s Wednesday are also forecast as a
thermal ridge moves over the region resulting in relative humidity
into the 25-35% range. These combine with drying dead fuels to pose
some risk for fire danger which will need to be monitored. As the
cold front passes late Wednesday, some chance of rain comes post
frontal early Thursday mainly for northern Minnesota. Gusty winds
are again expected behind the cold front Thursday, this time from
the north. Luckily cool temperatures are expected behind this front
lessening another day for fire risk.

Next weekend looks mostly dry as high pressure settles into the
region in between perhaps a weak passing cold front Saturday which
could bring a quick shot of light rain to portions of the area.
Confidence in this weekend rain is low at the moment.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across
eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Patchy fog may
develop in the central Red River Valley (near KFAR/KGFK) due to
decreasing winds where lingering snow has been melting. Confidence
remains low, and mention was left out of TAFs. Gusty southwest
winds should decrease this evening as a front moves from north
central ND into MN. The winds should shift to the west-northwest
and remain 10kt or less the remainder of the TAF period.


Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

South to southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts around 30mph
this afternoon along with humidities around 20 percent combined
with dry fuels are creating dangerous fire weather conditions.
Winds and humidities are expected to improve quickly this evening
as the Red Flag warning goes until 7pm. Recovery tonight is
expected to be in the 70s and 80s for max RHs.


Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Spring snowmelt continues to keep some area rivers above or near
flood stage. The Red River at Oslo and the Snake River at Alvarado
remain within moderate flood stage with both locations not yet
seeing crest. After examining hi-res satellite imagery from April
21, ice still resides in smaller rivers like the Snake River and Red
Lake River along with many judicial ditches within the east-central
and northeast Red River Valley. Because of this, there still remains
some question of how flood water plugged up in open fields will
effect river levels, especially further downstream at locations like
Drayton and Pembina. Have issued flood warnings for these locations
due to increased confidence in levels reaching minor flood stage.
Flooding due to an ice jam occurred unexpectedly in Crookston
yesterday, but has since receded. Ice complications were also
observed along the Goose River in Hillsboro as a result of lingering
snow pack in Steele and Traill counties.




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