Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 271508
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1008 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

...SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...

...INLAND FREEZE AND FROST TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

Mostly sunny, dry and continued cool today as surface high
pressure builds eastward from the FL panhandle. NNW winds will
gust 15-20 mph at times through early afternoon, then weaken into
the late afternoon as the ridge builds overhead. Aloft, passing
high cirrus will continue across SE GA, then edge southward into
the evening.

Tonight, dry air and light winds will bring an inland freeze. At
this time, frost is expected as thickness of cirrus is not anticipated
to signficantly limit radiational cooling conditions. For the
coast, low temps in the low/mid 40s are expected as shallow NNE
flow develops.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

High pressure will slowly build more toward the northeast Saturday
through Saturday night. A dry day is forecast for Saturday, but
increasing moisture in onshore flow will result in more cloud cover.
Highs will be just a bit below seasonal normals. For Saturday
night, warm advection will strengthen through the night, as the
flow becomes more from the east then east southeast. Clouds will
continue to increase through Saturday night, due to the warm
advection, in addition to clouds moving in from a building low
pressure system to the west. Temperatures Saturday night will be
be largely non diurnal, with lows occuring around midnight, then
slowly rising, or remaining near steady through the overnight
hours.

A warm front will lift northeast into the area Sunday afternoon,
ahead of low pressure system gathering over the central Gulf
states. Precipitation chances will increase through the day along
this boundary. Temperatures will rise well above normal Sunday
south of the warm front. Low pressure will move northeast along
the warm frontal zone through the night Sunday night. At this time
extending the warm frontal zone along a southwest to northeast
line across SE GA Sunday into Sunday night. The potential will
exist for Strong to Severe storms Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night, with the possibility for an isolated Tornado. Temperatures
will be well above normal into Sunday night as well.

Weak trailing frontal zone will dissipate over the area on Monday,
with a few lingering showers/storms through the day. Another above
normal day is forecast for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

A broad fairly weak ridge of high pressure will be over the area
Monday night through Wednesday. Passing waves to the north will
provide for added cloud cover, but the weather should remain dry
through Wednesday.

Another wave will move across the area Wednesday night into
Thursday, leading to the potential for showers and storms.

Temperatures will be well above normal through this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals.
Northwesterly surface winds will become sustained at 5-10 knots
towards 14Z. Surface winds will shift to north-northeasterly at
the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals after 18Z, with north-
northeasterly surface winds developing at the Duval County
terminals by 22Z. Surface winds will diminish towards sunset,
followed by northwesterly winds increasing to around 5 knots at
the coastal terminals after 04Z as thin cirrus clouds gradually
increase region-wide.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 958 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

High pressure will build over the local waters tonight and then
build northeast of the region Saturday. Continued with the Small
Craft Exercise Caution headline for our outer waters this morning
with winds 15-20 kts, then lower to 10-15 kts into the afternoon
as the pressure gradient relaxes and the high builds in from the
west.

A warm front will lift over the waters Sunday, then low pressure
will move across the area Sunday night. A cold front will move
south of the area Monday then high pressure will build northwest
of the region into Tuesday.

Rip Current Risk: Moderate risk NE FL beaches today. Low risk SE
GA beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 958 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

NNW winds 5-10 mph with gusts 15-20 mph are expected through
midday, then winds will begin to decrease into the afternoon as
high pressure builds in from the FL panhandle. RHs will fall to
near 30% inland to near 40% along the coast this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  31  61  44 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  55  42  59  51 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  58  34  64  52 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  58  45  66  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  60  34  67  53 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  62  39  70  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     FLZ020-021-023-024-030-035-122-222.

GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$


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