Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 250716

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
316 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The mid upper trough axis will continue to travel northward along
the Florida peninsula over the course of the day bringing showers
and thunderstorms into the region, with fewer developments
occuring over southeast Georgia. Most recent model runs show that
the path of the trough axis has shifted more towards the east of
the forecast area, moving through nearby Atlantic waters overnight
and into tomorrow. Gusty winds this afternoon will move in from
out of the east, with the east coast sea breeze extending inland
reaching as far as just east of I-75 corridor. Temperatures for
today are expected to be near and just below the seasonal average
due to spreading cloud cover and showers with max temps reaching
into the lower to mid 80s. Overnight low temperatures will be in
the mid to upper 60s for inland areas and in the lower 70s near
the coast and along the St Johns River.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...

An inverted trough will move northward along our Atlantic
coastline Tuesday through Wednesday. The resulting increased
onshore flow will lead to increased shower and thunderstorm
activity, particularly on Tuesday when upper level divergence
aloft will enhance lift. These stronger winds will also mean
breezy conditions along the coast and offshore as well as a high
risk for rip currents. On Wednesday, the inverted trough will be
exiting to our north and then stalling out Highs Tuesday will be
mostly in the low-mid 80s, upper 80s in north-central Florida.
Temperatures will be warmer Wednesday, returning back to the upper
80s to low 90s. Overnight lows should be mostly in the upper 60s
to low 70s both nights.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

An unsettled pattern will be in place through early next week with
a cut off low over the southern MS Valley and a potent +PV anomaly
over Ontario. Both of these features will develop frontal systems.
A warm front from the former is poised to move northward through
our area Thursday and a cold front from the latter will move
through early next week. In between, persistent southerly flow
will keep plenty of moisture in place and hot temperatures will
drive a diurnal seabreeze circulation. Overall, daily chances for
storms in the long term will run around 40-50%. Temperatures will
peak in the low 90s in the afternoons and dip to around 70 at


[Through 06Z Tuesday]

Overnight VFR conditions will give way to lowering ceilings this
morning, with showers and thunderstorms begin to develop
throughout the region over the course of the day. Strong easterly
winds associated with the east coast sea breeze will reach up to
about 15 kts with gusts of up to 25 kts in the afternoon for
coastal sites and airfields in Duval County.



High pressure will be north northeast of the region through Monday.
An inverted trough is expected to develop across region Tuesday,
with this trough lingering into Wednesday. The trough will then lift
north and weaken Wednesday night. High pressure will build to the
northeast Thursday through the weekend.



Warm, humid, summery conditions in place this week with daily chances
for afternoon thunderstorms. RH values of 40% or higher will preclude
red flag conditions for the next several days.



Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for the next
several days will produce rainfall accumulations generally around
3" or less. Widespread flooding (including river flooding) is not
anticipated, however, areas that receive isolated higher totals
over short periods of time may see localized flooding.



AMG  85  69  81  68  85 /  20  50  70  40  40
SSI  82  72  81  71  84 /  50  70  80  40  40
JAX  84  70  83  71  88 /  30  70  80  30  50
SGJ  82  70  84  70  87 /  50  80  80  30  50
GNV  82  68  85  69  90 /  50  60  70  20  40
OCF  82  69  87  70  90 /  70  60  70  20  40


FL...High Rip Current Risk from this afternoon through Tuesday
     afternoon for Coastal Nassau.

     High Rip Current Risk from 11 AM EDT this morning through
     Tuesday afternoon for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal
     St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk from this afternoon through Tuesday
     afternoon for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Tuesday for Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
     Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to
     Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to
     St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine
     to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal
     waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

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