Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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831
FXUS62 KJAX 220130
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
830 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

...LIGHT INLAND FREEZE FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

.UPDATE...

Cool conditions will continue tonight with less wind and
increasing clouds, both from the west in the form of high cirrus
and from the ESE as low level stratocumulus begin to advect
onshore. Temperature forecast a bit tricky as cold and dry low
level air was in place across inland SE GA under a low level ridge
axis that extended down the SE Atlantic coast, while temperatures
were trending warm and conditions more moist along the NE FL
Atlantic coast where a coastal trough was forming offshore of the
local Atlantic coast and onshore flow was moderating the low level
airmass. Temperatures were already in the mid/upper 30s across
inland SE GA, so left the current freeze warning in place, with
the expectation that min temperatures will likely bottom out
between 11 pm-3 am, then temperatures will begin to moderate
through sunrise as high cirrus increase overhead and low level NNE
flow transitions to more ENE through sunrise. Trimmed back frost
forecast to just inland SE GA and the northern Suwannee River
Valley due to non-ideal radiational cooling conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...

Prevailing MVFR ceilings expected at SGJ tonight under ENE flow
with stratocumulus advecting onshore. Low clouds expected to edge
farther inland northward through early Tue morning toward GNV and
CRG/JAX/VQQ where prevailing MVFR conditions were advertised by
12Z Tue. Trended forecast toward SREF and MET guidance which
continue to pivot low clouds northward toward SSI Tue as winds
transition to ESE through Tue afternoon. Gusts near 20 kts
expected once again along the coast by late morning Tue.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will build north of the region through Tuesday as
winds veer from east to southeast. Winds at buoy 41008 Grays Reef
were sustained 16 kts with gusts 19 kts and combined seas at 3 ft
around 8 pm EST. Will continue with exercise caution headline for
the outer waters tonight as pressure gradient will remain elevated
due to coastal trough forming offshore.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents expected Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Minor river flooding continued along portions of the Altamaha
River and Santa Fe rivers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  30  59  49  71 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  41  58  53  67 /   0  20  20  20
JAX  36  63  54  74 /  10  10  20  10
SGJ  46  64  57  73 /  10  10  20  20
GNV  38  68  53  77 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  40  69  54  78 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for Appling-
     Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coffee-Echols-
     Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

AM...None.
&&

$$

Enyedi/Wolf



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