Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
000
FXUS62 KJAX 191209
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
809 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Forecast on track with high pressure building in from the West and
this will continue to diminish northerly winds to 5 to 10 mph by
this afternoon under sunny skies and below normal highs only in
the 60s. The high pressure ridge axis will extend East to West
from the North Gulf Coast across NE FL/SE GA tonight and under
clear skies expect below normal temps to continue with lows in the
mid/upper 30s inland, which will allow for some patchy frost over
inland areas, mainly along and to the west of the US 301 corridor,
but likely not enough frost coverage to warrant a Frost Advisory
(issued for Widespread Frost coverage). Closer to the Atlantic
Coast lows will be in the lower 40s.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Colder and much drier air is pouring through the area with a
strong pressure rises of 3-6 mb giving support for the gusty
winds that have been 30-40 mph in a few places. Even a 44 mph at
NAS JAX and SGJ. Pressure rises have diminish a bit since a few
hours ago. Dewpoints have also crashed in the 20s and even a few
upper teens just to the northwest of the forecast area. Lowest
wind chill readings around 7-8 AM this morning will be over
inland southeast GA and into the Suwannee Valley in the upper 20s
to around 30, and elsewhere in the mid to upper 30s.
For Today, mid/upper level trough will move offshore this period
with mid level flow slowly becoming more zonal, with 500 mb
heights slowly rising and a shortwave ridge across TX will move
ever so slowly east. Surface high across the ARKLATEX area this
morning will shift southeast to east, and to a position to across
the north Gulf coast with sfc ridge extending across north central
FL by tonight. Locally, clear skies and below seasonal temps
given the cool advection pattern in place, with highs in the 60s
most locations, about 10 deg below normal. Onshore flow at the
coast may keep them at only about 59-60 today. Winds will be
gusty in the morning to 15-25 mph , but will lighten up through
late morning and aftn. Tonight, clear skies and light winds will
allow for very good radiational cooling. Will go with a blend of
MOS and NBM, leaning toward a bit cooler than NBM. Patchy frost
possible well inland were we have some min temps in the middle
30s. Closer to the coast, upper 30s to around 40 as we may a bit
off an offshore flow as the high pressure ridge will be toward
the FL Big Bend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
A surface high dominates the region for Wednesday before making its
way off the Atlantic Coast Wednesday night. This will create
mostly clear skies with temperatures in the low to mid 70s,
cooling into the mid to upper 40s inland overnight with coastal
temperatures in the low 50s. Thursday, day time temperatures will
be in the upper 70s staying a few degrees cooler along the coast.
A surface low will begin to form in the Gulf Thursday night with
some upper level instability (shortwave troughs) providing chances
for overnight rain showers and thunderstorms late Thursday night
into Friday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The low pressure that formed in the Gulf will continue to push
into the region Friday and make its way though NE FL and SE GA
overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be expected
area wide with temperatures staying mostly in the upper 60s for SE
GA and low 70s for NE FL. Conditions will begin to clear behind
the front with PWAT values dropping under an inch by Sunday with
temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70s by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR with SKC expected through the period. Gusty North winds have
started to diminish this morning with just some lingering 10-12
G15-18 knots until around 18Z when more significant weakening
trend occurs along with onshore flow at the coastal TAF sites in
the 6-8 knot range until sunset (00Z) when winds become near calm
inland and VRB03-04 knots along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Strong northwest to north winds expected through the early morning
hours with the gale warning remaining in effect. Will tack on a
small craft advisory as the gale expires this morning by about 8
AM, with the near-shore SCA lasting only a short time, only about
2-3 hours, and the offshore lasting through late morning or early
aftn, with the highest seas expected well offshore waters of Flagler
and St Johns counties near 7-8 ft. Winds and seas relax significantly
otherwise by tonight as high pressure moves into the region, and
the high will shift further south by late Wednesday. A weak backdoor
front moves into the Carolinas Thursday, and may drop into southeast
GA by Thursday afternoon and probably will stall. A storm system will
be develop Thursday into early Friday morning over the GOMEX, with
winds becoming more southeasterly Thursday night and increasing
and seas building to small craft advisory levels, especially
offshore waters. For now, it looks like the low pressure system is
progged to move across the FL peninsula Friday night. The low
will move offshore to the northeast Saturday morning and afternoon.
The period of small craft advy headlines looks to start Friday
morning and continue through the weekend. In fact, winds look to
flirt with gale warning criteria Sat night and Sunday.
Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents along area northeast
FL beaches with the flow more offshore or along shore for
southeast GA beaches so low risk was placed there.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
After last nights cold front, high pressure is building into the region
with a drier airmass in place. MinRH values will drop down into
the upper teens and 20s this afternoon and into the 20 to 30
percent range on Wednesday, however low wind speeds and wet fuels
will keep fire conditions from reaching elevated levels. On Thursday,
some moisture recovery will occur with min RHs in the 30s. Overall,
there are no fire weather concerns other than the low RH values
expected across the region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
On the Altamaha River, moderate flooding is occurring at Baxley
(and may have already has peaked) and is forecast at Everett City
for later today, with rest of river at minor flooding. Minor
flooding is now occurring for Satilla River at Atkinson. These
levels will remain elevated into late week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 62 38 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 61 43 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 63 38 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 60 41 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 65 37 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 67 37 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ450-452-
454.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ470-
472-474.
&&
$$