Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 222002
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
402 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.Short Term.../Tonight through Thursday/...

High pressure ridge will be overhead through Wednesday, then build
more toward the east. Subsidence and dry air under the ridge will
lead to a prolonged period of dry weather, with limited cloud
coverage. Once the ridge aligns more to the east, a more southerly
flow will result yielding increased moisture. Still expect the dry
weather to continue into Thursday, but clouds will be on the
increase due to the added moisture and decreasing subsidence.

After another night with below normal temperatures Tonight, a
moderating trend will begin. Lows will then be near to slightly
above normal this period. Highs will trend warmer through this
period, with afternoon readings near 90 common by Thursday.

&&

.Long Term.../Thursday night through Monday/...

Lack of run to run, and model to model consistency on handling of
low pressure system expected to pass through late in the week, is
leading to a degree of forecast uncertainty this period.

At this time, long range models are fairly consistent with a quicker
passage to low pressure system late this week. This would bring a
strong cold front across forecast area during the day Friday, which
could lead to a round of strong to severe storms.

High pressure will build to the northeast Saturday into Monday. This
pattern will yield a moist onshore flow. So, while organized
convection not expected late this period, can not rule out isolated
to scattered mainly diurnal showers/storms.

Temperatures are expected to trend near to slightly above normal
this period.

&&

.Marine...

High pressure will be overhead through Wednesday, then move toward
the east Thursday. An area of low pressure will affect the region
late this week into the early part of the weekend, with the
potential for a strong cold front to sweep east across area. High
pressure is forecast to build to the northeast over the weekend.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Risk through Tuesday
              NE FL Moderate Risk through Tuesday

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR through Tuesday. East to southeast sfc winds 5-10 kt until
early this evening. East to southeast sfc winds on Tuesday
expected to increase to near 10 kt by 14z-15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  62  79  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  55  84  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  59  79  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  53  87  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  52  85  57  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

23/Shashy


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