Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 171833
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
233 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.NEAR TERM /Through Thursday/...Another hot, muggy afternoon
across forecast area. Scattered to numerous showers and t-storms
will continue to develop through the afternoon...with greater
coverage ne FL where more unstable...3000-4000 J/Kg CAPE vs.
southeast GA where slightly lower dewpoints resulting in 2000-3000
J/Kg CAPE. With 500mb temps slightly cooler around -7C, slightly
higher DCAPE values and high Precip Water values should support
strong to isolated severe downbursts from taller storm cores that
develop through early evening.

Activity should gradually diminish during the evening, yielding
partly cloudy skies Tonight. Current low temperature forecast
Tonight looks good.

Scattered afternoon and early evening showers/t-storms expected
again Thursday in hot, moist environment. High temperatures will
be in the lower-mid 90s inland...around 90 coast..with heat
index values reaching the 102-106 range.

.SHORT TERM /Thursday Night through Friday Night/...
Weak break in upper ridge will exist over forecast area this
period. Should see another round of scattered t-storms Friday
afternoon, some on the strong side, diminishing Friday evening.
Near to slightly above normal temperatures expected during this
period, but high dew points will push Friday afternoon heat index
values into the 102-106 range.

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Weak break in upper ridge is expected to evolve into a weak
upper low centered over FL panhandle...which will gradually work
westward as large upper ridge builds north of the forecast area.
At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will remain over the
forecast area during the period. Expecting a near normal July
period, with near normal temperatures and daily chances for
afternoon and evening t-storms. Afternoon heat index values will
exceed 100 each day.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered TSRA will affect inland TAF sites through
the remainder of the afternoon, with gusty winds and lower
CIGs/VSBYs. VFR conditions expected outside of storms and later
Tonight.

&&

.MARINE...Region will remain between high pressure east southeast
of the area and low pressure to the northwest into early next
week. Result will be south to southwest winds 10 to 15 knots
and 2 to 4 ft seas.

Rip Currents: Low Risk SE GA, Moderate Risk NE FL, through
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  95  75  93 /   0  40  40  60
SSI  78  91  78  91 /  10  30  20  50
JAX  75  94  76  94 /  20  50  20  60
SGJ  74  90  75  90 /  10  20  20  40
GNV  73  93  75  92 /  30  30  20  40
OCF  72  92  75  92 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Wolf/Nelson/Corless


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