Tropical Weather Discussion
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054
AXNT20 KNHC 210537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
137 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 30W from
02N-15N southward, moving W 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is related to this wave at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 44W from
14N southward, moving W 10 to 15 kt. Model guidance and satellite
imagery depict this wave very well. Scattered moderate convection
is noted east of the wave axis from 07N-15N between 33W-41W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 77W from
21N southward, moving W 10 to 15 kt. This wave is depicted in
model guidance. Scattered showers are noted south of 20N between
72W-82W.

A tropical wave is moving through Guatemala, along 92W from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection are
noted across the EPAC waters where the wave meets the monsoon
trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 12N16W to
06N29W. The ITCZ extends from 07N31W to 05N43W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical wave described above, scattered
showers prevail along the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the Florida peninsula reaching
the eastern Gulf near 26N82W to 24N88W. Scattered showers are
noted along the front. To the northwest, an area of cloudiness and
scattered showers are noted north of 25N and west of 90W.

Weak high pressure across the Florida Panhandle will slide NE
through Mon night. A cold front will reach the NW Gulf Mon night,
and move gradually SE, reaching from near Sarasota, Florida to
offshore of Tuxpan, Mexico to western Bay of Campeche by Wed
morning, where it will stall and slowly weaken through early Thu.
Strong NE winds are expected behind the front Tue through Wed
morning. Winds will gradually veer SE across the basin Thu and Thu
night in advance of the next cold front, which is expected to
reach the Texas coast on Fri morning. Gale force N winds are
possible behind this front by late Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the western Caribbean.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between northern sections
of Colombia and western and NW Costa Rica. This is enhancing scattered
moderate convection across the southwest Caribbean south of 12N
between 75W-82W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
trades across the basin.

The Bermuda high will promote moderate trade winds across most of
the the basin through Wed night, except for fresh SE winds
pulsing to strong over the Gulf of Honduras and the south-central
Caribbean tonight and Mon night. The tropical wave along 77W will
continue to move westward with convection. No tropical cyclones
are expected over the basin during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N76W to
27N80W. To the east, a central Atlantic cold front extends from
32N47W to 27N51W to 25N58W, then transitions into a shear line
from that point to 25N70W. Scattered showers prevail along the
front. A pair of surface troughs were analyzed, extending from
27N42W to 20N42W and from 33N31W to 23N34W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along the second trough between 30W-36W. A
weakening cold front extends across the far east Atlantic from
27N13W to 29N28W.

Weak high pressure will prevail over the area through
Wed. A cold front will move off the coast of N Florida by Tue
evening and become stationary over central Florida and north of
the Bahamas by Thu. High pressure will build from the middle
Atlantic coast SE into the area behind the front late Wed through
Thu. No new tropical cyclones are expected over the forecast
waters during the next several days.

$$

ERA



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