Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 141712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1212 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

An upper level ridge will continue to move across the central
plains for this evening into tonight. A mild 850 mb airmass
(12-15C) along with stronger 850 mb winds should keep the area
mixed enough that lows will stay mild tonight in the low to mid
40s. A large trough located off the Pacific coast will lead to
warmer and windy conditions again on Thursday.

Thursday a chunk of energy from the main low in the Pacific will
head eastward into the Rockies and eventually the central Plains.
A negative tilt trough will develop and a surface low around
Limon, CO will start to deepen. As it does so winds should
increase out of the southwest through the day and 850 temperatures
will warm to around 20C. New record highs for Dodge and Garden
City could happen with forecast highs in the mid 80s. The current
fire weather watch for the western areas will likely be upgraded
to a red flag warning with the relative humidity falling to 10-15%
and winds breezy out of the southwest at 20-35 mph. Critical fire
risk is already outlined by the SPC for the far southwest and it
will most likely be expanded to include most areas west of highway

As the low moves eastward through Thursday night we could see
shifting of the winds which will be important to monitor should
any fires develop Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

An upper level low will move across the Central Rockies Thursday
and Thursday night as the upper level ridge crosses the Central
and Northern Plains. As this approaching upper level system
deepens and lifts northeast into the West Central High Plains an
area of low pressure at the surface deepening over eastern
Colorado on Thursday will begin to slowly move into northwest
Kansas. Across southwest and south central Kansas a tight surface
pressure gradient can be expected during the day. Based on this
tight pressure gradient and the forecast mixed layer winds late
day the wind gusts during the afternoon in excess of 35 mph will
be likely south of the Scott City to Larned line. These gusty
winds when combined with afternoon relative humidity values of 10
to 15 percent west of highway 283 will result in critical fire
risk levels Thursday afternoon. Will therefore issue a Fire
Weather Watch for this area Thursday afternoon.

Record or near record temperatures will be felt across western
Kansas as temperatures climb into the 80 to 85 degree range
Thursday afternoon. Some records that will be in jeopardy
Thursday, March 15th are: 83 at Dodge City, 84 at Garden City, and
84 at Medicine Lodge. All three records were set in 2013.

On Friday the upper level low will cross western Kansas as an
area of low pressure at the surface crosses northern Kansas.
Across western and southern Kansas strong west to northwest winds
at 25 to 35 mph will be possible. Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph
can also be expected during the afternoon , especially north of a
surface cold front as it begins to drop south into southwestern
Kansas during the afternoon. Based on these expected winds Friday
afternoon and relative humidity values in the 15 to 25 percent
range there will be yet another day of elevated to near critical
fire risk conditions.

Highs on Friday will not be as warm as Thursday given some
cooling forecast by the models behind the cold front that will
cross western Kansas during the day. Still based on the 900mb to
850mb temperatures at 00z Saturday the highs will still be
unseasonably warm. Highs in the 60s still look likely for all of
western Kansas. Some lower 70s possible in south central Kansas.

More seasonal temperatures will begin the weekend period as an
area of high pressure builds across western Kansas. Winds are
expected to be 10 to 15 mph but dry conditions will continue with
relative humidity values in the 15 to 25 percent range.

Gusty winds and warmer temperatures will quickly return to
western Kansas on Sunday as a trough of low pressure develops
across eastern Colorado as the next upper level trough approaches.
Fire weather conditions will also be increasing late this weekend
into early next week as this upper level trough crosses the
Rockies on Sunday and then moves out into the central plains
Sunday night/early Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

VFR and SKC conditions through the time period. Winds will stay
breezy throughout the afternoon from the southwest at 20-30 kts
with gusts up to 35 kts. Winds should back off slightly tonight
however LLWS will start to ramp up for the TAF sites around 04Z
and continue through 13Z. Surface winds will start to increase in
the late morning and once again become strong by Thursday


DDC  72  44  85  45 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  73  40  85  42 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  72  42  80  41 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  72  41  83  42 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  72  40  80  44 /   0   0   0  10
P28  71  43  78  48 /   0   0   0  20


Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-046-065-

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for KSZ061>063-074>078-084>088.



LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Tatro is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.