Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180446

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1146 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Currently, a warm front has been retreating through the CWA from
southwest to northeast, and will stall out south of the I-70
corridor. This will bring in stronger, dry southwest air
downsloping from a surface trough across eastern Colorado down
into northeastern New Mexico. Temperatures this afternoon will
surge into the 80s for most of the area with 90s possible along
the Oklahoma border. Winds will gust up to 35mph this afternoon
under a tight pressure gradient. An upper level trough will begin
to push into western Kansas this evening supporting a surface cold
front that will drop through by sunset shifting winds out of the
northwest. The lack of any strong upper level divergence will cut
off any precipitation chances, staying well north of the CWA. A
very strong pressure gradient is evident behind the frontal
boundary with high northwest winds behind it. Coupled with a
strong mixing of the cold air pool behind the aforementioned
front, winds will be at or near high wind warning criteria through
midnight. After midnight, the winds will diminish gusting only to
25-30mph as the pressure gradient relaxes in the wake of the
frontal boundary still out of the northwest.

The northwest surface flow will continue for tomorrow with a dry,
downsloping effect for much of the day heading into the evening
hours. Temperatures will start a little on the cooler side due to
the cold front ranging from the 30s in the west and northern
counties, and 40s for the southeastern counties. Afternoon highs
will only reach the 60s for the entire CWA. Upper level ridging
will build back up over the Rocky Mountain west, allowing for
surface high pressure to push back into western Kansas Wednesday
evening calming winds to variable conditions over night before
returning to the more southerly fetch of winds. No other
significant weather elements are forecasted in the short term,
with winds and a slight cool down being the main factor for
tonight and heading into Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

...Widespread beneficial rain still expected Friday and

Thursday...Sunny breezy and dry. Ridging sharpens over the plains,
in response to strong closed low near Las Vegas Nevada by 7 pm. On
the back side of a 1033 mb surface high, SE winds will pick up
substantially as return flow commences. Strongest SE winds will be
located across the western zones, with highs in the 60s for all

Closed 550 dm upper low over southern Utah sunrise Friday will
only wallow around on Friday, only ending up near the Four Corners
by 7 pm. This slow movement is critical to rain prospects in SW
Kansas, as it allows ample time for the leading warm conveyor belt
to establish, and moisture advection to increase on SE winds
through the depth of the atmosphere. Simultaneously, the leading
edge of ascent ahead of the slowly approaching low and associated
diffluence will spread rain showers and embedded thunder across
the western zones (west of US 283) Friday afternoon. 12z ECMWF
continues to show this solution consistently, with continued
support from GFS and extended NAM. Still, the parent low will not
be moving in a hurry, and it will take some time for the rain to
advance east, and kept likely pops confined west of US 83 through
7 pm Friday.

Warm advection/warm conveyor belt rain showers and embedded
isolated/elevated thunder will spread west to east across SW KS
Friday night through Saturday morning. Parent upper low is
forecast to accelerate some into eastern New Mexico by Saturday
morning. Roughly 1/3-2/3" inches of rain is expected with this
initial round. Instability looks very limited, even aloft, with
the storm track having shifted southward a bit. Still, isolated
thunder is a near certainly given the moisture availability and
the time of year. Severe weather is not expected, with even
marginally severe hail potential looking slim.

A brief break in rain coverage will likely occur for several hours
Saturday morning, as the upper low shifts into W TX, and the
deformation/stratiform rainfall materializes. 12z ECMWF has edged
the storm track southward, with the upper low near Childress
Saturday afternoon. As such, wraparound stratiform rain will be
most prevalent across the southern zones (south of US 50), exactly
where the rainfall is most desperately needed (exceptional
drought). Another 1/4-1/2" of rain can be expected from this
second round. Likely/categorical pops remain justified, with
12z MEX guidance running 90-100%.

Overall, forecast QPF amounts have trended downward on this
forecast cycle, due to a slightly more southern track. Model
consensus continues to produce widespread rainfall amounts near
one inch across most of SW KS. While this would barely dent the
long term drought, it would certainly alleviate fire danger and
accelerate vegetation green up for spring.

Temperatures will struggle to get to near 50 with thick clouds,
rain, NE winds and cool advection on Saturday. All rain will end
Saturday night.

Sunday and Monday...Dry weather with moderating temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

VFR conditions will prevail with mostly clear skies. Strong
northwesterly winds will continue overnight initially gusting to
40+ knots then decreasing to around 30 knots around 4AM.


Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Red flag warning conditions for this afternoon and evening due to
a strong, dry downsloping wind behind a retreating warm front
pushing through the CWA stalling out before it reaches the I-70
corridor. Relative humidity values will drop to the single digits
in the western counties and 10-15 percent for the rest of the
area. Winds will gust up to 35mph before turning out of the
northwest this evening before sunset. Any fires that start this
afternoon will see impacts with this wind shift at that time.

Tomorrow will see significant areas of fire danger for the entire
CWA but not quite red flag conditions. Thursday will trend to a
improvement to fire weather conditions with critical areas for the
western counties before becoming only limited for Friday heading
into the weekend. Rain is forecasted for Friday and Saturday
helping to alleviate the fire danger and drought conditions.


DDC  42  66  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  39  64  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  40  65  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  41  67  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  62  31  62 /  10   0   0   0
P28  47  69  35  67 /   0   0   0   0


High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for

Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for



LONG TERM...Turner
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