Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181659

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1159 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Strong northwesterly winds will continue today as the system that
affected the area yesterday moves into the Upper Mississippi
Valley. Wind gusts around 40 mph will be possible during the
morning and early afternoon hours. An upper level ridge will build
over the Rockies today with little to no moisture for clouds to
form above western Kansas. Winds decrease rapidly this evening and
shift to more of a southerly direction overnight as the ridge axis
of the area of high pressure slides through the area. As for
temperatures, highs today look to reach into the 60s with lows
tonight dipping into the low to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Dry conditions continue Thursday with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be out of the south to southeast as troughing
across eastern Colorado intensifies. Meanwhile, an upper level low
will move into the Rockies Thursday night and move just to the
south of the area Friday into Saturday. Cloud cover increases
Thursday night as this system approaches with mostly cloudy skies
expected Friday through Saturday night. Precipitation chances
will increase across far western Kansas Friday morning, spreading
eastward and increasing in likely hood Friday night. A good chance
of precipitation is expected across the forecast area Friday
night through Saturday as the system moves eastward. This system
then exits the area Saturday night with decreasing precipitation
chances from north to south. Models continue to show areas of 1
inch plus across portions of western Kansas. However, the trends
continue to decrease during each model run and will need to be
watched over the next couple of days to fine tune amounts. Dry
conditions return Sunday and Monday as an upper level ridge builds
across the western United states and high pressure returns as the
dominate feature at the surface. As for temperatures, highs
Thursday look to be in the 60s with upper 50s and lower 60s
Friday. Highs are then anticipated to only reach into the lower
50s Saturday then back into the 60s Sunday through Tuesday. Lows
will generally range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

VFR conditions will persist through the entire TAF period and
beyond with clear skies and unrestricted visibility under high
pressure building into the CWA. Winds will gust out of the
northwest up to 30-35kts until 20Z before starting to diminish to
gusts up to 25kts and turning out of the northeast as the
aforementioned surface ridging extends in from the northwest.
After sunset around 01Z, winds will die off tremendously as night
time cooling starts and a temperature inversion sets up at the
surface. The pressure gradient also relaxes at this time with not
much of a spread across the entire region of western Kansas.


Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

RHs this afternoon look to dip into the teens again. However, the
place where the RHs are low will also be where the winds do not
meet red flag criteria. Nevertheless, fire weather conditions will
be high across much of southwest Kansas.


DDC  66  33  64  40 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  64  31  65  40 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  65  36  68  42 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  67  34  67  42 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  62  31  60  37 /   0   0   0  10
P28  69  35  65  39 /   0   0   0   0


Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for



SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
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