Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1220 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

A dry pattern continues today and tonight as ridging aloft moves
out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. A
weakening northwest flow aloft and a lack of moisture/instability
will preclude any precip chances across western Kansas through
Thursday night. A warming trend will continue today as well as a
prevailing southerly flow draws warmer air into the high plains,
pushing H85 temperatures up into the mid teens(C) across central
Kansas to near 20C in extreme southwest Kansas. Look for highs
well up into the 70s(F) this afternoon with the lower 80s(F) not
out of the question across extreme southwest Kansas. The effect of
low level southerlies will continue into Thursday night resulting
in some of the mildest overnight temperatures of the season.
Expect lows only down into the 40s(F) with the lower to mid 50s(F)
likely in south central Kansas as advecting low level moisture
pushes surface dewpoints up into the mid to upper 40s(F).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

A relatively dry pattern will persist through the weekend even as a
weak upper level disturbance ejects out of the Central Rockies into
the Western High Plains late Friday. A lack of moisture across
much of the region will be reinforced by much drier air spreading
into western Kansas Friday afternoon behind an advancing dryline
moving quickly through the area. Weak upper level ridging building
out of the Central/Southern Rockies into the Western High Plains
through the weekend should keep precip chances at bay across much
of southwest Kansas through the end of the weekend.

Well above normal temperatures can be expected Friday as a
prevailing southerly flow becomes more southwesterly later in the
day behind the aforementioned advancing dryline. This will enhance
warm air advection, pushing H85 temperatures above 20C across
southwest and much of central Kansas. Widespread highs in the 80s(F)
are likely with near 90F possible in some locations Friday
afternoon. A cold front pushing through western Kansas Friday night
will dramatically drop high temperatures for Saturday as much cooler
air spills into the state. A modest temperature rebound can be
expected Sunday as ridging aloft moves out of the Rockies into the
Western High Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Southeast winds will be at 10 knots or less today and tonight.
BUFR soundings indicating that the winds in the 1500 to 2000 ft
AGL level will be increasing to 40 to near 45 knots after
midnight. These increasing winds in the lower levels are below low
level wind shear criteria so will not be including a wind shear
group in the 18z TAFS between 06z and 12z Friday. BUFR soundings
also indicating VFR conditions this afternoon and overnight for
all but the HAYS area. Around the HAYS area tonight a period of
IFR ceilings will be possible towards 12Z Friday given the
forecast increase in boundary layer moisture as the southerly low
level winds increase.


Issued at 119 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

A deepening surface low will move out of eastern Colorado into
northwest Kansas Friday afternoon while an attendant dryline
pushes eastward through southwest Kansas. A tightening pressure
gradient across the area will result in gusty southwest winds
while much drier air moving in behind the dryline brings about
much lower relative humidity. Elevated to critical fire weather
conditions can be expected across southwest and portions of
central Kansas Friday afternoon.


DDC  75  47  87  44 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  75  44  87  41 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  80  49  86  42 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  78  46  89  42 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  72  46  83  43 /   0   0  10  10
P28  75  48  88  48 /   0   0  10   0


Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
Friday for KSZ061-074-075-084-085.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for KSZ043-062-063-076>078-080-086>090.



LONG TERM...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...JJohnson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.