009
FXUS63 KDDC 251817 CCA
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
116 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally brief moderate to heavy rainfall can be expected from
  late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Chance for
  Thunderstorms 20-40%.

- There is a marginal risk for wind gusts up to 60 mph and
  locally heavy rainfall will be possible Thursday afternoon and
  evening east of a Hays to Dodge City to Ashland line.

- A warming trend returns to southwest Kansas over the weekend.
  this will result in afternoon highs climbing into the 95 to
  100 degree range with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Earlier this morning an upper level trough/low was located over
the Great Basin with the latest water vapor imagery indicating
that this system was beginning to move east northeast. The best
deep moisture fetch on the western periphery of the southeast
United States 500mb high extended from eastern New Mexico across
western Kansas into northeast Nebraska, which is also where
ongoing convection was occurring as of 06z Wednesday morning. At
the surface a trough of low pressure was located near the
Colorado border with a cold front stretching from northeast
Colorado into southwest Iowa.

The upper trough west of the Four Corners region this morning
is expected to move across the Rockies and into the Plains over
the next 36 hours. As it approaches from the west today...a
surface trough will deepen over eastern Colorado. This plus
stronger boundary layer winds mixing down to the surface will
result in gusty south winds by midday. Along with these gusty
winds, cloud cover will increase from the west as scattered
thunderstorms develop along and east of the eastern Colorado
surface boundary. Early tonight these scattered thunderstorms
will spread into western Kansas as the upper trough exits the
Rockies and moves out into the Plains, while the surface
boundary exits eastern Colorado and crosses into western Kansas.
Currently the risk of severe weather is not expected early
tonight given the weak shear and where the better mid level
instability will be present late day/early tonight. A few storms
early tonight will however be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall and isolated gusty winds.


Another round of thunderstorms is possible late Thursday along
the surface boundary which most short term models place south
and east of the Dodge City area Thursday afternoon. The Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted this region with a marginal
risk for severe storms due to increasing afternoon mid level
lapse rates along with improving forcing along this surface
boundary. Although 0-6km shear is forecast to remain below 25
knots, any storms that develop could still produce isolated
strong wind gusts. Precipitable water values greater than 1.5
inches support the potential for locally heavy rainfall from
these storms. This boundary will also separate unseasonably warm
and humid conditions to the east from cooler, more seasonal,
temperatures to the west. Highs on Thursday will range from the
upper 80s west of the boundary (west of highway 83) to the mid
90s east of it (across south central Kansas). Also when you take
into account the forecast surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
Thursday afternoon across southwest Kansas then the heat index
values near 100 degrees will be possible in some areas late in
the day.

Heading into the weekend an upper level trough over the Pacific
Northwest will move quickly eastward toward the Northern
Plains. Across the Central Rockies the improving westerly flow
early this weekend will result in improving downslope flow
across eastern Colorado and western Kansas. In addition the area
of deep moisture circulating around the southeast United States
upper level high will be shifted eastward out of western Kansas
and eastern New Mexico into western Oklahoma and central
Kansas. As a result the current warming trend that the NBM has
going early this weekend still looks on track. Confidence is
greater than 70 percent for highs early this weekend to be in
the mid to upper 90s. While late day and overnight thunderstorms
are also possible early in the weekend, the more favorable
moisture and surface boundary locations suggest that storm
activity will likely be focused east of Highway 283.

Our best chance (40-60%) for thunderstorms Kansas late in the
period will come late this weekend into early next week as a
cold front moves across western Kansas as an upper trough
crosses the Central and Northern Plains. Scattered
thunderstorms not only will accompany this cold front as it
crosses southwest Kansas but also it will bring a brief period
of unseasonably cool air to the region early next week. Forecast
highs early next week are currently in the mid to upper 80s,
though it could be slightly cooler if the ECMWF ensemble
verifies. The latest ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for maximum
temperatures on Tuesday shows a -0.5 to -0.6 anomaly in a
portion of southwest Kansas. This would suggest that the
ensemble forecast is trending toward unusually cool temperatures
compared to model climatology. We will monitor to see if this
trend continues.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Scattered cu but VFR conditions across all TAFs this afternoon as
the area of better ovc and -RA is relegated to far NW Kansas. An
increased thunderstorm risk will develop by early to mid evening for
any of the terminals, maximized around 2-6z and favoring GCK-HYS for
brief MVFR ceilings and vsby in scattered showers and storms. Any
thunderstorm risk should be over by about 9z leaving decreasing
southwest winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Russell