Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261956
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
256 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...Updated Long Term Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

The story of the rest of today will be hot and breezy.
Temperatures will swarm into the mid to upper 90s across the
entire CWA due to being under an induced upper level ridge down
stream of a deep long wave trough across the Great Basin. Winds
will pick up out of the south to southeast with gusts up to 25
mph. Western counties will see a more westerly component of the
south winds allowing for a dry, downsloping wind elevating fire
danger for these areas with relative humidity values in the upper
teens. Increasing high clouds this afternoon as well, spilling
over the aforementioned upper level ridge already visible on IR
satellite. Winds will die off after sunset due to night time
cooling and a weak temperature inversion setting up at the
surface. Over night low temperatures will only drop to the mid to
upper 60s, and due to the moist southeast flow and high dewpoints
close to the temperature, some areas will again see dew on the
grass and windshields at sunrise. Winds will pick up in the
afternoon gusting up to 25 mph out of the south to southeast under
max heating and ample low level mixing. Temperatures will again
soar into the mid 90s.

The story for late Sunday afternoon and evening, will be the risk
of severe weather being in a marginal risk at this time. The
aforementioned upper level trough will push eastward more over the
inter-mountain region of the Rockies. The instability will be
there with the hot temperatures and CAPE values in the 1500-2000
J/kg range with ample low level moisture due to the southeast
flow. There looks to be good 0-6km shear as well around 30-35kts,
but due to increasing temperature in the mid levels the further
south of the boundary, the more of a cap there will be limiting
any severe development. Air parcels that are able to push through
the cap will have the potential for large hail up to 2 inches and
60 mph winds, but no concerns in regards to tornados. The time
frame looks to be development around 5-7PM in the western counties
and moving eastward through sunset before dieing off shortly there
after by 10-11PM.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Any thunderstorms that develop will die off and push off to the
east of the CWA late Sunday night. Cloud cover will clear out over
night as well as winds diminish due to nocturnal cooling. Monday
morning will start the day in the mid to upper 60s once again with
high dewpoints making it a humid start to Memorial Day. Winds
will pick up out of the southeast in the afternoon due to lee side
troughing deepening along the Colorado Kansas border with gusts
up to 30 mph. Afternoon high temperatures will soar again into the
low 90s under a thermal ridge pulling in the heat from the south.
This instability of high temperatures, severe weather will be in
the slight range late in the afternoon and evening. CAPE values
look to be forecasted around the 2500 J/kg range with ample low
level moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico to be influxed in
with the southeast boundary level flow. The upper level low from
the aforementioned long wave trough will push across the Colorado
Utah border bringing in a series of shortwaves throughout the week
starting Monday afternoon. Being closer to the low allows a good
difluent flow aloft over western Kansas giving the exhaust
conducive to severe weather development. The only issue will be
with the cap and how deep and strong it is. Forecasted soundings
show a much weaker cap as it was for Sunday afternoon along with
hodographs showing a good cyclonic backing flow with height. Large
hail up to baseball size and damaging winds over 60 mph are
expected for most of the CWA under the slight area with tornados
possible and cannot be ruled out. Development should start late in
the afternoon between 5-6PM and be pushed east out of the CWA by
midnight Monday night. Once these clear out, winds will diminish
over night and clouds will scatter out. Low temperatures Tuesday
morning will also start off humid and warm in the mid to upper
60s.

For the rest of the week, there will be chances for precipitation
and thunderstorm development every afternoon and evening through
Thursday. None are currently forecasted to be severe with general
thunderstorm possible due to the instability and the slow movement
of the aforementioned low to the east. The series of short wave
troughs will be minor for this time period allowing for a better
cap alleviating any severe possibilities at this time.
Temperatures will increase throughout the week with highs on
Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 80s and low 90s for Thursday.
Low temperatures will be in the 60 degree range every morning for
this upcoming week as well. Winds during this time will continue
out of the southeast but generally lighter in the 10-15 mph range
due to a weaker pressure gradient.

Storm chances will be nil for Friday and Saturday as the upper
level low is now downstream of the CWA pushed across into the
midwestern states. High temperatures will be approaching 100 for
Friday being the hottest day of the next week. A weak cold front
will pass through the CWA under more of a northwest upper level
flow making it a dry front. Temperatures will not fluctuate too
drastically with this passing through the area, but high
temperatures will only be around 90 for Saturday with winds
turning out of the northwest around 10-15 mph gusting up to 20
mph.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

VFR conditions through the entire TAF period for all locations
with SKC through the morning before few high clouds push across
the CWA. Winds currently out of the southeast 10-15kts for all
locations and will pick up gusting to 25kts by 21Z during max
heating of the day allowing for the strongest mixing of the
boundary layer to the surface. After 04Z, these winds will
diminish due to night time cooling and a temperature inversion
setting up at the surface under the clear skies. Winds will pick
back up again out of the southeast after the end of the TAF period
along with thunderstorm chances, but none during the next 24
hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  94  68  92 /   0  10  20  20
GCK  65  94  67  92 /   0  10  30  30
EHA  64  96  64  93 /   0  30  20  20
LBL  65  95  67  93 /   0  20  20  20
HYS  65  93  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
P28  67  95  68  92 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Lowe
AVIATION...Lowe


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