Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
554 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Fairly quiet weather is forecast today as the upper tropospheric
pattern across the High Plains and into the Colorado Rockies will be
fairly zonal from the west-northwest. A very minor shortwave
disturbance will move across western Nebraska, and this will allow
for an enhancement of northwest surface winds across northeastern
Colorado into northwestern and far west central Kansas this
afternoon. 850mb temperatures will be warming back to the +5 to +8C
range by late afternoon, warmer out west, and this will translate to
surface temperatures mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Temperatures up around Hays will struggle to get much above 50. A
very subtle surface high will build back into northern/central KS
tonight, allowing whatever wind there was this afternoon to die off
quite a bit tonight. This should help temperatures drop down to the
upper 20s to lower 30s for lows, although some high cirrus clouds
moving in could complicate this low temperature forecast just a bit.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

A substantial upper level ridge will build in across the Rockies and
adjacent Great Plains by Thursday. This will allow lower
tropospheric temperatures to warm quite a bit. We will see an
increase in diurnal temperatures each day Wednesday through Friday,
with Friday seeing some widespread upper 80s to around 90 southwest
of a Syracuse to Ashland line. The downslope warming on Friday will
be quite impressive as a fast-moving shortwave trough embedded
within the overall southwest flow pattern moves quickly across the
Central Plains. No precipitation is expected across western Kansas
with this disturbance. A weak front will push south, however
temperatures will not be all that cold behind it (coldest air
confined to the Upper Midwest region). The front will stall out late
in the weekend just to the south of southwest Kansas, most likely,
as another much deeper trough develops out west. It is unclear how
this overall pattern will materialize early next week, but with a
deep trough out west and a front just to our south, the potential is
there for another precipitation event close by (if not directly
affecting southwest Kansas).


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

The last of MVFR stratus will exit HYS at the beginning of this
forecast period, and VFR will then prevail the rest of the period
and beyond. Prevailing wind will be from the northwest, generally
in the 9 to 13 knot range, strongest during the afternoon hours.
Light and variable winds will exist tonight as a weak high
pressure center moves in from the north.


Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to develop this
afternoon across mainly far west central and southwest Kansas, as
afternoon relative humidity falls to the upper teens to lower 20s
percent. Surface wind speeds are expected to remain just below
critical levels in the 10 to 20 mph range, although stronger winds
in the 15-25 mph range with gusts to 30 will try to push into the
Hamilton-Kearny-Scott County region by late afternoon.

Of greater concern is the potential for widespread critical fire
weather conditions developing Friday afternoon. Temperatures will
warm well into the 80s, and even near 90. Strong southwest winds of
20 to 35 mph will likely develop in addition to the warmth. Fire
weather headlines will probably be required as we get closer to
Friday as confidence increases.


DDC  58  31  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  59  27  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  61  28  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  62  28  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  52  27  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
P28  58  32  66  40 /   0   0   0   0




SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.