Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220527

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1227 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

A dry pattern continues today and tonight as ridging aloft moves
out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. A
weakening northwest flow aloft and a lack of moisture/instability
will preclude any precip chances across western Kansas through
Thursday night. A warming trend will continue today as well as a
prevailing southerly flow draws warmer air into the high plains,
pushing H85 temperatures up into the mid teens(C) across central
Kansas to near 20C in extreme southwest Kansas. Look for highs
well up into the 70s(F) this afternoon with the lower 80s(F) not
out of the question across extreme southwest Kansas. The effect of
low level southerlies will continue into Thursday night resulting
in some of the mildest overnight temperatures of the season.
Expect lows only down into the 40s(F) with the lower to mid 50s(F)
likely in south central Kansas as advecting low level moisture
pushes surface dewpoints up into the mid to upper 40s(F).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Dry, Warm, and Very Windy conditions can be expected across
western Kansas on Friday as an area of low pressure across eastern
Colorado deepens in response to the next approaching upper level
trough. 850mb temperatures trends continue to support highs in the
80s with near record highs being possible for much of western
Kansas. In addition to the near record warmth, afternoon relative
humidity values will be falling back into the teens as sustained
winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts in excess of 40 mph develop. This
will result in critical or near critical fire weather conditions.
Based on this we have issued a Fire Weather Watch for Friday
afternoon for locations west of a Scott City to Medicine Lodge

Friday night the upper level trough will move northeast across
the West Central High Plains and a cold front will drop into
southwest Kansas. The winds may briefly decrease as the front
passes but behind this front northerly winds of 20 to 30 mph will
once again develop and then continue through early Saturday
morning. These gusty winds will then fall back into the 10 to 20
mph range during the day on Saturday as high pressure at the
surface begins to build into western Kansas. The current high
temperatures forecast over the weekend may be a little on the warm
side given the cooling 900mb to 850mb temperatures behind this
cold front. Still the trend is there so will stay close to the
latest guidance with highs Saturday and Sunday in the 65 to 75
degree range.

Precipitation chances Friday night still not looking very good
and agree with the previous shift about the warm mid level
temperatures keeping southwest Kansas dry as the upper wave
passes. May need to monitor north central Kansas, near or north of
the I -70 corridor, where the northern edge of this warm layer is
forecast to be located for overnight elevated convection.

The surface cold front is still forecast to become nearly
stationary late this weekend across southeast Colorado and the
panhandle of Texas. Improving moisture and lift developing north
of this boundary on Sunday will be occurring ahead of another
upper level trough that will be approaching from the southwest.
Given this improving lift ahead of this next upper level system it
still looks this will be the time frame for the next chance for
measurable precipitation across southwest and south central
Kansas. Also given the increase in cloud cover the temperatures
will stay on the cool side, especially early next week when some
reinforcement of cooler air returns under the clouds and possible


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late Thursday
evening. South to southeast winds 10 to 20kt will persist across
southwest and central Kansas during the period as surface high
pressure in Missouri pushes slowly eastward across the Central


DDC  38  75  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  34  75  44  86 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  38  80  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  39  78  46  89 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  38  72  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  75  48  88 /   0   0   0   0


Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for KSZ043-061>063-074>078-080-084>090.



LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.