Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 222325

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
625 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

An upper level ridge will build across the Central Plains through
Monday as our next upper level trough crosses the Pacific
Northwest and approaches the Central and Northern Rockies. As the
flow across the Rockies becomes more perpendicular the downslope
flow will improve and based on the warming a 850mb temperatures
from 00Z to Monday 00z Tuesday the highs rebounding back to around
70 will be possible across western Kansas.

For tonight a surface ridge axis will cross Western Kansas. It
currently appears the surface ridge axis will be located near of
just west of Dodge between 09z and 12z Monday. Based on location
of where the lightest winds will be early Monday morning will
undercut guidance. Temperatures early Monday morning has the
potential to fall back to near 32 degrees in a few locations given
the light winds and clear skies, mainly west and north of Garden

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

On Monday night a cold front will cross western Kansas as the
upper level trough exits the Rockies and crosses the Central
Plains. Precipitation chances will also be on the increase late
Monday night and Tuesday given improving lift along a mid level
baroclinic zone that will precede the upper level trough.

An area of high pressure at the surface will then build into
western Kansas Tuesday afternoon. Clearing skies Tuesday night
along with light winds will set the stage for a chilly Wednesday
morning. Will favor trending temperatures down Wednesday morning
which would yield Lows near freezing again across portions of far
western Kansas.

After a cool start to Wednesday 850mb temperature trends suggest
another warm up midweek. These warm 850mb temperatures will be
located just ahead of another cold front that is forecast to cross
western Kansas on Thursday. As this cold front crosses Western upper level trough embedded in the northwest flow will
also cross the central plains on Thursday. What little cold air
that will move in to the central plains behind this cold front on
Thursday will stay mainly east of Dodge City so little if any cool
down is expected behind this front late week. Moisture also
appears somewhat limited so precipitation Chances on Thursday
still look low. Gusty north wind however will be possible behind
this front with wind gusts up to 35 to near 40 mph being possible
late Thursday.

Over the weekend our focus will shift to the West Coast has an
upper low exits the eastern Pacific and crosses California and
Nevada. Latest GFS and ECMWF offering differing solutions on how
quickly this system will move east and strength of this next
system. Will therefore stay close to persistence for now that far
out given high uncertainty.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Monday
morning. Due to residual moisture from resent rainfall and a
developing light southeasterly upslope flow, areas of patchy fog
cannot be ruled out toward daybreak, potentially resulting in
MVFR vsbys in the vicinity of all TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will persist through late Monday afternoon. Light and
variable winds will continue through early Monday afternoon as
surface high pressure shifts slowly east across the Upper Midwest
into the Great Lakes Region.


DDC  38  70  45  59 /   0   0  10  50
GCK  35  70  43  54 /   0   0  10  40
EHA  39  73  44  55 /   0   0  10  30
LBL  40  72  47  56 /   0   0  10  40
HYS  40  68  44  58 /   0   0  10  60
P28  43  72  46  66 /   0   0   0  30




SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.