Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210009

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
709 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

...Update and Aviation section updated for 0z TAFs...

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Based on latest data, have placed fog in the forecast for
tonight. Soundings and most of the near term data show the lowest
few hundred feet saturating as higher dew points are advected in
from the east/northeast tonight. Latest data supports fog forming
after midnight, with the lowest visibility occurring around
sunrise(half mile or less). The fog will only extend roughly as
far south as Highway 400. Visibility will decrease to the north.
Fog will be gone before mid morning. The one uncertainty is how
low the visibility will be if the fog ends up only being a few
hundred feet deep.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Overview: A potent shortwave digging ashore the northern/central
California coast today/tonight and amplify into a closed low over
central/southern California during the day Monday. Downstream -
W-SW flow aloft will prevail over the Central Plains.

Today and Tonight: An amalgamation of small amplitude waves
(including MCVs spawned by a massive nocturnal MCS in the Southern
Plains) were noted over OK and eastern portions of KS this
afternoon - progressing northeast in southwest flow aloft. A
relatively cool/dry surface air mass will remain in place over
the region - in assoc/w high pressure (centered over the Dakotas)
extending southward through the Central/Southern Plains. With a
cool/dry air mass in place and overwhelming subsidence on the
western periphery of the aforementioned waves tracking northeast
from OK into eastern KS, expect dry conditions to prevail.

Monday and Monday night: A surface trough will develop in the lee
of the Rockies on Monday as southwest flow aloft strengthens over
the Intermountain West, in advance of an upper level low
progressing inland toward southern Nevada. Low-level southerly
return flow will gradually strengthen during the day in western
TX, eastern NM, and southern CO - advecting modest low-level
moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates - aiding in diurnal
destabilization and the development of scattered convection during
the late afternoon in northeast NM and southern CO. Isolated
convection could propagate downstream into extreme southwest KS
Monday evening, however, unfavorable diurnal timing and a less
favorable thermodynamic environment with eastern extent suggest
such activity will wane within a few hours of sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Long range guidance suggests that the upper low progressing ashore
CA today/tonight will stall over the Intermountain West and
gradually dissipate by mid-late week as an upper level ridge
strengthens over the Southern/Central Plains. With the above in
mind, expect a warming trend and a decreasing potential for
convection as the week progresses.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main focus is timing
of the fog/stratus after 6z and how low will the ceiling and
visibility go. Based on latest data there is low to high
confidence of how far south the fog/stratus will extend. Have
moderate confidence for how low the ceiling at KGCK will fall
tonight, which will be to atleast MVFR. The IFR ceiling may be
just northeast of the site. May need to lower ceiling to IFR for
the next TAF. Have low confidence of ceiling/visibility at KLBL.
A small pocket of IFR or MVFR conditions may develop at KLBL,
however am not very confident of this occurring at this time.
Seems more likely MVFR conditions will occur if there will be any
reduction since most data supports the fog/stratus remaining north
of the site. Have high confidence of IFR conditions occurring at


DDC  52  81  62  85 /   0  20  10  20
GCK  52  83  60  85 /   0  20  10  20
EHA  54  82  59  82 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  56  83  61  84 /   0  20  20  30
HYS  48  80  62  86 /   0  10  20  10
P28  55  83  63  87 /  10  10  10  20




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