Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251551 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1050 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Thunderstorms have cleared the SE CWA as of late morning, with only
some convective debris clouds in the vicinity of Barber county. With
a clear sky and late May sun behind the departing MCS, the
atmosphere is destabilizing strongly (already MLCAPE of 1000 J/kg as
of 10 AM). 12z NAM cranks CAPE to the 3000-4000 J/kg range across
the SE zones (SE of Dodge City) with the strongest instability
across Comanche/Barber counties. Despite the instability, there are
very few triggers to initiate convection.
Some outflow boundaries from last night`s convection may help to
get something going, but the lack of flow/shear in the upper
levels would render any thunderstorm`s life span short. Kept all
grids dry (pops<15%) for all zones through this evening.
Temperatures will warm well into the 90s, with light winds
maintaining an easterly component.

Tonight...Ridge begins to build into SW KS, keeping the sky mostly
clear. Light and variable winds. Lows Saturday morning ranging
from the upper 50s at Syracuse to the upper 60s at Kiowa.

Saturday...Sunny and hot. Amplified high pressure ridge builds
strongly over the plains, sandwiched between a 567 dm upper low
near Las Vegas Nevada, and subtropical storm Alberto in the Gulf
of Mexico. Subsidence will be on the increase, killing any chance
of convection and sending temperatures soaring. Zeroed out the pop
grids, with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.
Expecting enough of a lee trough in eastern Colorado to induce
increasing SE winds in the afternoon, averaging 15-25 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The mentioned upper level ridge in the Short Term section will move
slowly across western Kansas through Saturday, and this will keep a
lid on any thunderstorm activity. This will also result in
temperatures warming well into the mid to upper 90s. Things start to
change by Sunday afternoon as the leading edge of southwest flow
aloft impinges on far western Kansas. This will foster development
of the surface leeside trough and increased convergence along the
Colorado border. Low level moisture will slowly pull back to the
west, and at least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
anywhere along the leeside trough, as both the ECMWF and GFS global
models have a QPF signal along/east of the leeside trough. This
should be the first of multiple days of thunderstorm activity. In
fact, Monday and Tuesday look particularly interesting as the upper
low approaches the Rockies. The latest ECMWF and GFS show this low
slowly dissolving and lifting north into the northern High Plains by
Tuesday, but the base of the remnant trough will be moving out
across the Central High Plains, and there should be enough westerly
momentum in the mid levels to provide adequate deep layer shear for
organized severe thunderstorm activity.

Going into the middle part of next week, the southern branch of the
upper level jet will be moving into the Desert Southwest region,
which will continue the theme of southwest flow aloft, keeping some
form of the leeside trough/low in check at the surface just to our
west/southwest. As long as this pattern holds, strong/severe
thunderstorm activity will be in the cards for at least some portion
of western Kansas. There is some indication by late in the week that
very hot 850mb air will develop on the southern High Plains of 30+
degrees C, and if this is the case, we will see some 100-degree
afternoon temperatures for a fair portion of southwest Kansas
Thursday and/or Friday (toward the end of this forecast period).


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

VFR will continue through this TAF cycle, with excellent flying
weather through Saturday morning. No thunderstorms are expected
near the terminals. Expect SKC to prevail, with some cumulus this
afternoon. If an isolated thunderstorm would develop this
afternoon, it would most likely be near P28. Light SE winds this
afternoon will trend light and variable overnight. Stronger
SE winds (15-25 kts) are expected to begin around 15z Sat. Under
strong ridging aloft, no thunderstorms are expected through


DDC  95  63  96  67 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  95  61  97  66 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  93  60  98  65 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  95  60  99  66 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  94  63  95  67 /  10  10   0   0
P28  95  67  96  69 /  10  10   0   0




LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.