Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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672
FXUS61 KCLE 220754
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
354 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to move slowly east toward eastern New
York and Pennsylvania by this evening.  Low pressure will move to
the Tennessee Valley by Monday and then linger across the southern
portions of the Ohio Valley into Tuesday.  The low will extend a
trough of low pressure north into the local area Monday and Tuesday.
High pressure will build southeast into the lower Mississippi Valley
by Thursday morning extending a ridge northeast into the local area.
A strong cold front will move east across the area Thursday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the local weather
through Monday.  The Rex Block pattern is expected to slowly shift
east to the central Mississippi Valley region by this afternoon.
This will keep the local area under the influence of upper level
ridging and a continued pattern of fair weather across the area. The
main issues we are faced with is the middle and high level
cloudiness sliding east across the area.  Model and satellite trends
are for this moisture to slide slowly south of the area tonight and
bring a return to sunshine by Monday morning.  Moisture will really
begin to push northeast across the area Monday afternoon in advance
of the approaching slow moving low pressure system. The good news is
that temperatures are beginning to respond to the upper level ridge
and surface high pressure and they will continue to warm over the
next 36 hours.  Highs today will be in the lower to middle 60s most
areas with exception being the lakeshore.  Lows tonight are expected
to be milder in the lower to middle 40s.  Then, for Monday, further
warming will take place with highs in the middle to upper 60s;
cooler near the lake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level closed low starting the period over Tennessee will
open as it lifts northeast towards Pennsylvania on Wednesday.
The southeasterly flow in advance of the system will advect
moisture north into the area Monday night with showers
expanding, especially across eastern areas on Tuesday. Models
have been trending wetter and have raised pops to likely across
the eastern half of the area for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening where lift is maximized. ahead of the upper low.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be cool given the increase in
clouds and shower activity. By Wednesday surface low pressure
will have shifted east to New York while a stronger trough aloft
deepens over the Great Lakes region. This will result in
increasing northerly flow and cold advection on Wednesday with
temperatures trending cooler, especially downwind of Lake Erie
in NE Ohio and NW PA. A chance of showers will also linger in
the east while western areas begin to dry out as surface ridging
begins to build in from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Temperatures trend warmer on Thursday as southwest flow ramps up
ahead of the next trough approaching the region. After a cool start
to the day, highs on Thursday will be in the upper 50s most areas
with cooler temperatures near Lake Erie.

Models continue to advertise a cool pattern to end the week although
struggling with the evolution of the upper level trough and how much
cold air will follow the front. With the 00Z/22 cycle, the GFS and
Canadian were the cooler models with another closed upper low
developing while the ECMWF was more progressive with the trough and
not as cold. Little confidence in details at this time given the
recent run to run variability but high confidence in below normal
temperatures in the extended periods.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
High and mid clouds will prevail through the day today and then
give way to clearing skies late tonight. Winds are expected to
remain light early this morning at less than 10 knots.
Otherwise, a slight increase in the winds will take place later
today at around 12 knots.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Tuesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the region will become focused along the New
England coast by Monday. Northeast winds will increase to near 15
knots along the south shore of Lake Erie with waves building to 2-3
feet late today. On Monday the winds will veer around to the
southeast allowing waves in the nearshore waters to drop back closer
to 1 foot.

Low pressure over the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday will move across
the eastern Lakes Wednesday while merging with a stronger low
pressure system along the East Coast. Easterly winds on Tuesday will
back to the north on Wednesday and increase as colder air is pulled
south across the lake. Northerly winds will increase to 10-20 knots
leading to building waves with onshore flow.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...KEC



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