Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 240521
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
121 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low over the Tennessee valley will slowly track east into
the mid Atlantic region by Wednesday. An upper trough will move
southeast across the Great Lakes Wednesday. High pressure will build
across the region Wednesday night through Thursday night before a
cold front moves east across the region on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Very light rain, borderline sprinkles, moving across the
forecast area now. Heavier rain SW of area, will move into the
area after midnight.

Original discussion... Fairly active period tonight through
Tuesday night as a slow moving upper low tracks east from the
Tennessee valley into the mid Atlantic. Rain showers will
overspread the region from south to north this evening and
overnight. Expecting the initial push of precip to be fairly
light as guidance continues to depict an initial band of forcing
becoming more diffuse overnight. Have generally went with mid
chance to low likely pops overnight, increasing towards tomorrow
morning across the southern/southeast part of the CWA as models
show a better push of 850-700mb fgen into the area. Have a
general 0.10-0.25 in. of precip overnight, with another
0.25-0.50 in. on Tuesday. Have gone with a period of categorical
pops across the eastern part of the area Tuesday, with mid/high
likely elsewhere. Precip chances will taper a bit Tuesday night
as better forcing from the southern stream low translates
eastward, however a northern stream trough will be digging
southeast through the Great Lakes, which will help precip
chances overnight Tuesday, especially north. Lows tonight will
be in the upper 40s to low 50s across the region. Highs tomorrow
are several degrees cooler than previous forecast. Guidance has
come in much cooler, and there is quite the discrepancy between
the warmer MOS and the colder raw guidance. Have trended a bit
towards a MOS consensus, with forecast highs in the mid to upper
50s across the area. Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid to
upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The surface low and inverted trough will shift to the East
Coast by daybreak Wednesday. Cool northerly winds will be
ongoing so expect scattered showers to continue through the
morning hours. It will begin to dry out by midday and by 18z
most of the area west of I-77 should be dry. Not quite sure how
fast showers will end in the east given different model
solutions. The ECMWF rotates a piece of energy across the area
on Thursday while the other guidance shows riding at the
surface. Will hedge a little and go with a small shower mention
early Thursday for the east end of the area. By midday all areas
should be dry. More uncertainty exists for Friday as most of
the guidance shows a front settling south across the area the
second half of the day. Moisture appears limited but a few
showers could develop over the northwest half of the area by the
end of the period.

Wednesday will be a cool day and have may gone a tad warm.  Readings
each day will warm a couple of degrees and by Friday we should be
back with a degree or two of normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
All of the models agree that the upper trough will gradually lift
out early next week and ridging will build across the midwest and
eventually the eastern states.

Showers associated with the cold front could linger Friday night,
especially east of I-71. The models handle the trailing short wave
on Saturday differently. The GFS does not do much with the short
wave while the other models post some modest precip. I suspect that
it may be cold enough aloft to generate some instability showers and
is worth a small pop, especially in the hills of NE OH and NW PA.
High temperatures on Saturday may be suppressed by the clouds and the
threat for showers. Forecast highs will be mostly in the 50s,
perhaps some 40s extreme NE OH and NW PA.

The temperature rebound should begin on Sunday as the surface high
builds in and heights rise and sunshine should be prevalent. THE GFS
warms things quicker than the ECMWF and CMC. With decent sunshine in
late April I do not like to be below guidance and will push the
blended guidance a degree or two. The exception may be near Lake
Erie where a lake breeze is likely, especially east of Cleveland.

A back door front is progged to drop across the eastern lakes early
next week. It seems less likely from the model trends that the front
will sag this far south. The forecast will continue with the warming
and dry trend on Monday with highs approaching/around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
TAFs starting out VFR with isolated light rain showers.
Scattered/numerous showers expected all day across the OH
terminals. No specific focus to time them with and will go with
VCSH. Vsbys could lower with any heavier shower. Lower ceilings
have been slower to arrive and have slowed down the timing into
the terminals even more. IFR will increasingly be likely after
00Z Wed. Southeast winds will begin to shift to the northeast
tonight.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
East to southeast flow will continue tonight into Tuesday as weak
low pressure moves up the Ohio Valley.  This low will shift to the
East Coast Tuesday night.  Winds will become northerly as this
occurs and speeds may increase enough on Wednesday to justify small
craft conditions.  High pressure will begin to build over the region
from the west Wednesday night causing the flow to become westerly.
The high will move over Ohio on Thursday with winds becoming
southwest from west to east during the day.  A cold front will cross
the lake sometime late Friday returning the flow to the north and
likely prompting more small craft headlines.  High pressure will
return for the start of the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...DJB/Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Kubina


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