Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 180130
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
930 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east out of the central Great Lakes
allowing a weak ridge to build east across the area Wednesday. A
fast moving low pressure system will move east across Ohio and
Pennsylvania Wednesday night. A large area of high pressure will
build southeast out of central Canada into the western Great
Lakes by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Snow has all but ended across NE OH/NW OA so changed snow pops
to flurries through late this evening. Clearing has reached
extreme SWRN portion of the forecast area. Lowered overnight
lows a couple of degrees across the SW portion of the forecast
area. Rest of forecast looks reasonable for the 930 update.

Original discussion... Low pressure that brought widespread
snow to the local area is now moving east of the Great Lakes at
this time. The low brought accumulating snow to the northeast
snowbelt with lighter amounts to the rest of the forecast area.

As the low pulls away from the region, high pressure will begin
to build east across the region. The high will bring subsidence,
drier air, and a lot of shear; all of which will help to degrade
the potential for lake effect snow overnight. Will taper the
snow off from west to east during the night hours. As the high
builds in, some clearing will work in from the west and south
with the northeast snowbelt areas remaining cloudy or mostly
cloudy overnight.

Clearing will pretty much dominate the area during the morning
hours tomorrow under the influence of the high. However, this
will be short lived as more clouds will spread in from the west
well in advance of the next fast moving storm system that will
arrive Wednesday night.

Rain will spread into the area ahead of a warm front and then
may decrease a bit in the southeast before the low arrives later
Wednesday night. Looking at a possibility that some sleet could
mix in across the northern tier counties late Wednesday night.
Otherwise, a transition from west to east over to snow from rain
is expected in the wake of the low pressure system.

Temperatures will cool off again tonight and concern is how
light winds go in the south and west and timing of the clearing
could cause temperatures to drop lower than forecast for tonight
so they will have to be watched. Then, warm air advection takes
place Wednesday into Wednesday evening ahead of the low pressure
system with cold air advection to follow the low late Wednesday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The models continue to trend toward a solution that tracks low
pressure just south of Lake Erie Wednesday night with the
upper low/trough almost overhead at 12Z Thursday. There is a
good chance for precipitation Thursday morning from the trough axis
east and it will probably be cold enough for snow in most areas.
The exception may be the southeast from around Millersburg to
Canton and Youngstown and it will probably not take long for
the rain to change to snow there with decent cold advection and
colder air aloft in the trough. Lapse rates will likely be steep
with decent upward motion until the trough passes and we may still
have one last snowfall (hoping for the last), especially in the
higher terrain from around Cleveland east through the primary and
secondary snowbelt into Pennsylvania. There could well be snow down
into the hills of north central Ohio as well, around Polk, Ashland,
Smithville and Lexington. Will mention a few inches in the snowbelt
and modest amounts elsewhere. Obviously, we will adjust the forecast
with time.

The system is moving quickly with lessening chances for
precipitation Thursday afternoon/night although the trough
slows across the northeast states and a few snow
showers/flurries could linger, especially across northwest PA.

High pressure will slowly build eastward Friday into Saturday. The
flow will likely be northerly which will continue to chill the
lakeshore. Inland areas will warm slowly back toward normal as
we head into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term begins Saturday night as high pressure builds toward
the area from the north.  Dry air will be pushing in as well so
would expect partly cloudy to clear skies for the overnight. Low
level flow will be off the lake but 850mb temps should be close to
zero and with subsidence under the high expect the lake to stay out
of the picture. Through the first half of the week this high builds
into the area Sunday and then drifts east to New England on Monday
and Tuesday while 500mb heights build significantly.  Models do show
an upper low tracking east across the southeastern states but as
long as that remains south of the region expecting a rain free long
term with clear to partly cloudy skies and temperatures moderating
through the 50s Sunday into the 60s Monday and 60s, possibly 70s, by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Last of the synoptic snow is beginning to exit to the east at
this time. This is transitioning to existing lake effect snow
off Lake Michigan into western Ohio and to lake effect snow in
the eastern snowbelt region of the forecast area. Not expecting
much in the way of additional snow accumulation in the east as
shear begins to develop and drier air works its way into the
local area. Expecting improving conditions to take place
overnight with some clearing working its way from west to east
late tonight into tomorrow. Winds will diminish overnight and
shift around to a variable and light situation for tomorrow.
Clouds will begin to spread into the area after 2 PM tomorrow as
the next system approaches from the west.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible again late Wednesday night and
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Brisk west winds on Lake Erie will slowly diminish through tonight
as high pressure builds east. The small craft advisory will continue
from the Islands east until the early morning hours. High pressure
will slide south of the lake on Wednesday, and low pressure will
quickly approach from the midwest. The low looks as though it will
track south of the lake Wednesday night and winds will develop from
the east and back to the northeast and eventually the northwest
by Thursday. Winds will increase by Thursday and a small craft
advisory will be needed again. Winds will lighten up over the
weekend as high pressure slides across the Great Lakes.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...DJB/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Kosarik



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