Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 191928

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
328 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018

Latest water vapor imagery shows shortwave trough moving east
through Ontario. This shortwave has propelled a cold front into the
Upper Great Lakes region today. Temps across the northwest half of
the cwa behind the cold front this afternoon have fallen into the
40s/50s while temps ahead of the front over south central Upper Mi
remain in the lower to mid 70s. Isolated showers/drizzle linger
along/behind the front as noted on the latest radar loop.

Weather will quiet down tonight with some clouds and gusty winds to
start the evening giving way to some clearing and diminishing winds
overnight as high pressure builds in from the west. Isolated showers
will linger into the early evening over north central and eastern
sections of Upper MI but otherwise expect dry conditions tonight.
Lows will tumble into the 30s later tonight across much of the area,
and will likely dip into the upper 20s over the colder inland west

Sunday...In the wake of the cold front, another very dry air mass
will settle over the area for Sun. Based on mixing heights and dry
air aloft that can be mixed down, will continue to favor the lower
end of bias corrected guidance for dewpoints. Under abundant
sunshine, expect highs in the western interior to reach into the
lower 70s with RHs falling to 15-20pct. Fortunately, winds will be
on the lighter side which will prevent enhancement of fire wx
concerns. Will be cooler along the Great Lakes, especially Lake
Superior, where highs will only be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018

Next week, high pressure will take hold across the region and favor
the return of above-normal temperatures, dry conditions, and fairly
light winds. Given the light winds expected and ample insolation,
expect lake breezes off of Superior and Michigan to dominate the low-
level wind fields during the day. These conditions will promote RHs
plummeting into the 20s away from the Great Lakes during the
afternoon hours, but thankfully RH recovery during the overnight
hours looks highly favorable. The lower RHs and unseasonably warm
temperatures will lead to the return of fire weather concerns,
especially on Monday when diurnal mixing could promote wind gusts
upwards of 12-15 mph across the interior. Moving towards the middle
of the week, thankfully winds are expected to remain light. A few
shortwaves are progged to track across the Great Lakes region, which
could lead to periodic chances for precipitation. However, there is
far too much uncertainty in the track of the shortwave and moisture
return this far north say if any of this precipitation will get into
Upper Michigan.

Friday through Memorial Day Weekend, a more active pattern will
begin to track across the region as a quick moving shortwave tracks
across the northern Plains and down across the Upper Great Lakes
Friday into Saturday. With moisture return progged to reach well
into the northern Rockies and Plains as the Gulf of Mexico will be
wide open for days prior, there could be enough instability that
gets this far north to promote chances for thunderstorms ahead of
the cold front Friday into Saturday. As to whether or not we will
see any strong to severe storms, we will have to see how the shear
profiles and instability gradients evolve ahead of the cold front
later this week. Behind the cold front, the tail end of the Memorial
Day weekend looks to be quieter and cooler. However, it`s important
to note that if the arrival of the above mentioned shortwave and
cold front are delayed, the chances for showers and thunderstorm
could arrive a bit later than currently forecast.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 130 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018

A sharp cold front moving through Upper Mi today will bring a
period of MVFR conditions to the TAF sites today. Expect isolated
to scattered rain showers along and behind the front. Greatest
chance for rain this afternoon will be at CMX as the front crosses
the area. North winds will also gust up to 20-25 kts behind the
front this aftn. Conditions should improve to VFR and winds should
begin to die down over the western TAF sites by early evening as
high pressure and drier air pushes in from the west. MVFR
conditions will continue into early evening at KSAW as will the
gusty north winds. By late tonight, expect decreasing clouds and
diminishing winds at KSAW. VFR conditions with lighter winds are
expected on Sun.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 327 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018

Northeast to north wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots this afternoon
behind a strong cold front crossing Lake Superior. As high pressure
quickly builds in tonight expect winds to diminish blo 20 kts across
all of Lake Superior late tonight. These light winds of mostly 15
kts or less will continue through much of next week as high pressure
parks itself over the Upper Great Lakes.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


LONG TERM...Ritzman
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