Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 191925

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
325 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 144 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2018

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the MO/KS
border with a trough over the northern Rockies this morning. There
is also a trough over New England. The closed low along the MO/ KS
border heads east and opens up while the trough in the northern
Rockies moves into the northern plains 00z Wed. It is borderline for
lake effect snow showers, but there could be enough moisture to at
least put in slight chance pops in the eastern lake effect snow
belts and will have that tonight into Tue morning. Otherwise, pretty
quiet weather through the forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2018

No change in the persistent quiet weather pattern expected through
late this week. Models have also now trended farther south with
system for the weekend. So far for March we have not had even 0.75
inch of precipitation which is over 1 inch below normal. We will
only add to this deficit over the next week. Temperatures this week
do not look very warm though and airmass over the region stays quite
dry with dwpnts well below freezing so despite the dry weather does
not look like we will melt much snow.

Highlights for the benign weather pattern this week are minimal.
Expect mostly cloudy skies Tuesday night into Wednesday as a weak
shortwave trough aloft drops across the region. The shortwave shears
apart so looks like it remains dry, however with the clouds around
and temps in the upper 20s north to middle 30s south, it will feel
pretty chilly. Temps will climb back toward normal Thursday into
Friday with more sunshine as upper ridging builds in from the

Upper ridge persists over Upper Great Lakes so as next system comes
in from the central plains it is pinched off more to the south
across the Ohio Valley. Instead of likely pops along the southwest
and south central, now only slight chances were populated from the
consensus of the models. Given those trends, think that makes a lot
of sense and didn`t make any changes. High pressure will continue to
keep dry weather over the area through rest of the weekend. Next
chance of light precipitation is now not in the forecast until next
Monday and that may even be too much. So just a real quiet weather
pattern until further notice.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 122 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2018

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with
periods of mid clouds. However, upslope ne flow of colder air will
support a greater chance for MVFR cigs at KSAW by late this evening
that will persist overnight.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 144 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2018

High pressure building in from Ontario will produce ne winds around
25 knots over western Lake Superior into tonight. Otherwise no
significant strong winds are expected through the forecast period,
with winds generally staying at or below 20 knots.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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