Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 161000
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
600 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 600 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2018

Main driver of conditions today is a low moving across Lake
Superior, dropping a trough and cold front through the CWA late this
morning into this evening. Ahead of the front, deep mixing in an
already warm airmass will allow for high temps in the 70s and 80s
away from the shorelines. Temps drop along Lake Superior behind the
front this afternoon. The deep mixing will also make it dry and
breezy with min RH values of 20-30 percent inland (driest interior
W) and winds gusting 15-20 during the time of lowest RH. Issued an
SPS for counties along the WI border to cover the elevated
conditions.

The other issue of the day is possibly isolated to scattered
convection this afternoon/evening. The front may spark some
convection, mainly north-central and west this afternoon and
evening. With how dry it is only expect isolated to scattered
coverage with anything that forms, and rainfall amounts may be
pretty low due to very dry low levels. Given around 500 J/kg of CAPE
and around 30kts of effective shear, if convection forms there is
potential for some stronger cells, but not expecting anything
severe.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2018

There will be troughing in the western U.S. and troughing in the
lower and mid Mississippi River Valley 12z Thu with a shortwave
ridge over the upper Great Lakes. This ridge will remain over the
area into Sat. It will remain fairly quiet through then and mostly
dry as moisture remains off to the west.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a closed 500 mb low over Indiana
12z Sat and a trough over south central Canada with weak troughing
into the Rockies 12z Sat. A cold front will move through the area on
Sat. Upper troughing remains in the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun with a
sfc ridge moving into the area. This ridge remains into Tue over the
area. Another shortwave moves into the upper Great Lakes on Wed.
Looks pretty dry after Sat night with next chance for rain on Wed
and would only be slight chance pops then. Temperatures look to stay
above normal for this forecast period.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 132 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2018

With a dry low-level air mass still prevailing, VFR conditions will
continue at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst period. In response to a
weak low pres wave moving across northern Ontario, increased winds
above nocturnal inversion will lead to LLWS overnight until an hr or
two after sunrise. Gusty winds will follow during the morning/early
aftn. Cold front associated with the low pres will settle across
Upper MI during the aftn. There is some potential of isold shra, but
potential of any terminal being affected remains too low to include
mention in fcst.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 600 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2018

Winds will continue to gust to 20-25 knots into early this morning
as a low pressure system gradually slides south across the region.
Through the rest of the week, winds will remain between 15 and 20
knots. Friday night into Saturday, winds will increases to 20-30
knots ahead of a cold front pushing east across the lake. Behind the
front, winds will remain between 10 and 20 knots through the
remainder of the weekend.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Titus



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