Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 211840

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
240 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 455 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2018

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a weak mid/upper level nrn
stream trough from Manitoba into the Upper MS valley and a
downstream ridge through nw Ontario. At the surface, high pressure
centered near James Bay dominated the region with dry ene low level
flow. However, ssw mid/upper level flow and 300k-310k isentropic
ascent supported an expanding area of mid/high clouds from WI
through the west half of Upper Michigan.

Today, continued dry ne low level flow with temps only to around -
10C at the top of the 2k-3k ft inversion will be unfavorable for
additional lake effect clouds or flurries. A weak shortwave trough
moving in from the northwest will help reinforce the mid/high clouds
over the area and will limit sfc heating. However, diurnal warming
will still push temps to around 30 north and the mid 30s south.

Tonight, expect enough clearing as the mid/high clouds thin out and
spread to the east, for better radiational cooling as light winds
persist. This will allow temps to drop toward the lower end of
guidance with min readings in the low single digits west to the
lower/mid teens along the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2018

Troughing and a closed 500 mb low off the pacific nw coast and
troughing in New England and the lower Great Lakes will occur 00z
Fri with ridging over the plains. The ridging will move into the
upper Great Lakes on Sat. Overall, did not make many changes to the
going forecast.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge over the upper
Great Lakes 12z Sun with a trough over the wrn U.S. The ridge moves
to the ern U.S. 12z Mon with a trough in the Rockies and the pattern
remains the same into Tue. Troughing moves into the northern plains
12z Wed and moves into the upper Great Lakes late Wed. Temperatures
will remain near normal for this forecast period with system pcpn
monday night into Tue.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 155 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2018

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Tonight winds
will be come light and variable at most TAF sites.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 455 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2018

High pressure will generally remain over northern Ontario through
the remainder of this week. Winds will mostly be under 25kt thru
the period. Ligthest winds should tonight through Thu night,
mostly under 15kt.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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