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000
FXUS63 KMQT 221944
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
344 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon give way to a quick
  round of showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder this
  evening.
- Rain quickly moves out the second half of the night with
  clearing skies.
- Another round of precipitation comes Tuesday with rain
  changing to snow with a few rumbles of thunder possible
  (20-30%) in the south and east. Generally, less than an inch
  of wet snow is expected in the north.
- Dry weather in the midweek under high pressure. Elevated fire
  weather concerns are expected for Wednesday and Thursday.
- Active weather pattern returns this weekend and continues into
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Upper ridging over the central US is beginning to slide eastward
with a compact shortwave moving into the Northern Plains. At the
surface, an associated surface low is moving into Manitoba, leaving
the Great Lakes under a tight pressure gradient as a surface high
remains sprawled out over the eastern CONUS.

SW winds continue to gust up to 20-30mph across much of the UP, and
though high clouds continue to stream across the area, lower to
midlevels remain dry and well-mixed (per early afternoon NUCAPS
soundings). This is sending dewpoints into the teens and lower 20s
across much of the western half of the UP, while to hte east, these
are coming in a couple degrees higher in the lower to mid 20s. With
temperatures already in the lower 60s across most of the area,
widespread RH values near (or even below!) 20% are observed in the
western half of the UP. This is all to say that elevated fire
weather conditions continue to be the rule this afternoon. Don`t
burn! As we head into the late afternoon, dewpoints should slowly
climb as more lower level moisture works in ahead of our next
approaching rain-maker.

A shortwave currently rippling through IA and MN this afternoon
moves into the UP this evening, eventually phasing with the Manitoba
low later tonight. This will bring a narrow swath of rainfall to the
area tonight, with most of the area expected to see some rainfall
for a 1-2hr window. As a dry slot works in behind it, skies quickly
clear from west to east the second half of the night. Most guidance
brings showers into the western UP between 00-02Z, then rain moves
out of the eastern UP between 06-08Z. Given such dry antecedent
conditions, this may be a bit ambitious for an onset timing. Thus,
unsurprisingly, rainfall amounts are lighter across the western half
of the UP compared to areas more eastward that will have more time
to moisten up. Still, totals remain fairly light, generally at or
below a tenth of an inch. Will note that the HRRR favors some
stronger embedded convection, indicated by simulated reflectivity up
to 40dbz. That, too, is a little suspect; this solution remains the
outlier, and soundings show little to no elevated instability. Thus,
have allowed thunder to fall off with this forecast update, but
wouldn`t be totally surprised to hear of a rumble or two overnight
with the HREF showing some CAPE sneaking in overnight (but mainly
following our shortwave).

Otherwise, though winds fall back into the early evening, they
should pick up again with the passing wave before decreasing again
behind it. Temperatures stay mild overnight, generally falling into
the lower 40s with a few spots in the upper 30s throughout the
western UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

The extended period begins with a quick reprieve from precipitation
giving way to showers and a few thunderstorms in the south and
eastern U.P., with the rain showers transitioning to snow showers
over the northern U.P.. After the cold front causing the
precipitation moves through Tuesday evening, expect dry conditions
to dominate Upper Michigan until Friday; we could see more elevated
fire weather conditions Wednesday into Thursday as a high pressure
sets up over Lake Superior and sunny skies will allow for greater
mixing. As we head into the weekend, a more active weather pattern
returns to the area, with rain chances returning Friday and
continuing into next week.

We start out initially dry Tuesday morning before the backside of
the Clipper low brings a cold front over the area by the late
morning hours. As this occurs, expect showers to move across the
area. Ahead of the cold front in the southern and eastern U.P., we
could see some fairly decent MUCAPEs, with some spots possibly
seeing up to 1500 J/kg aloft. However, unlike today, only around 25-
ish knots or less of 0-6 km bulk shear is expected. Therefore, while
there is a 20-30% chance of seeing thunderstorms over the south and
east Tuesday afternoon, no severe weather is expected. As showers
continue over the northern U.P., expect the rain to transition to
snow as strong cold air advection works its way south across Lake
Superior into Upper Michigan. With some upslope enhancement over the
north facing snow belts from Ironwood to Munising, expect a wet
dusting to possibly up to an inch in some spots. In addition, the
higher terrain near Mt. Arvon could see an additional inch of wet
snowfall as the upslope flow could squeeze out a little more
moisture from the atmosphere. While it is possible that we could see
visibilities down to 1/2 mile at times in the Michigamme Highlands,
with the ground temperatures being so warm recently and temperatures
only dropping down to around freezing during the daylight hours
Tuesday, the snow should be relegated to elevated surfaces and grass
(minimal travel impacts are expected). One more note: while short-
lived if it does occur, there is a small chance (10 to 20%) that we
could see a transition over to sleet/freezing rain for a short time
before the changeover to snowfall Tuesday afternoon. Should this
occur, expect ice accumulations to be just a glaze at the absolute
most, and only on elevated surfaces. The precipitation ends across
the area Tuesday evening as the cold front leaves our area and skies
clear out.

Dry weather is predicted from Tuesday night to Friday morning as a
high pressure ridge sets up over Lake Superior in the wake of the
Clipper`s cold front. With the anomalously cold air overhead Tuesday
night and with skies clearing out, I`m thinking the lows are going
to bottom out down further in the interior areas than what most
model guidance has. Therefore, I went with the NBM10th percentile,
taking the low temperatures into the teens across the interior west
and east; that being said, there is a chance (30%) that I didn`t go
low enough. While Wednesday and Thursday nights will have mostly
clear skies too, the temperatures shouldn`t be as cool as warm air
advection works its way through the region by the middle of this
week. That being said, with the dry conditions overhead, the U.P.
will struggle to make a full RH recovery each night, with the RHs
only recovering to around 60% Wednesday night! Meanwhile, the high
pressure over Lake Superior will keep sunny skies and dry conditions
over us Wednesday and Thursday. Dewpoints Wednesday look
exceptionally low, as the NAM model suite goes well below the
NBM10th percentile in some spots (i.e. the interior far east). While
I put in the NBM10th for Wednesday and Thursday, I could see the
dewpoints being quite a bit lower than what I put in for both days,
especially Wednesday where the difference was most noticeable.
Currently, I have min RHs down to around 20% Wednesday, but with the
high pressure directly over the lake then, RHs could (50% chance) be
even lower than that! Our saving grace, though, is that temperatures
are still looking to be pretty cool Wednesday, with highs expected
to only be in the upper 30s to mid 40s near the Great Lakes and mid
40s to low 50s in the interior areas, and winds are going to be very
light (Less than 10 mph for the most part). On Thursday, I have min
RHs getting down into the low 20 percents, with the lowest RHs in
the interior west. In addition, temperatures will be warmer as highs
get into the 50s across the area with some spots in the interior
west getting into the low 60s. However, RHs Thursday may not be as
low as Wednesday, as some warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico
begins to work its way towards the area by then. In addition, winds
are expected to remain fairly light as the high pressure leaves the
region, although they will begin picking up from the south to around
10 to maybe 15 mph at 20 ft by the afternoon hours. Overall, while
the weather will be fairly nice, especially Thursday, elevated fire
weather conditions look to be a concern for the middle of this week.

The fire weather concerns end Friday as our next low pressure system
impacts our area. As the low lifts from the Southern Plains through
the Northern Plains, we are expected to catch one of its fronts
during the day Friday. This will bring additional rain showers and
possibly (20 to 30% chance) thunderstorms back across our area
Friday. As the low itself moves through Lake Superior Saturday,
additional rain showers look to impact our area. Following this, a
second low pressure system lifts from the Southern Plains into the
Upper Midwest through the U.P. to finish out the weekend and early
next week. While it looks like we will get a reprieve after this,
next week looks to continue the active weather pattern as we could
possibly get set up with yet another low pressure system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Dry air will remain in control into this evening before a narrow
band of rain moves through. When the rain moves through conditions
may drop down to MVFR this evening for an hour or so, most likely at
CMX...otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the
night at all TAF sites. Another round of rain showers and lowering
ceilings will bring in restrictions late in the forecast period,
with MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings settling in. SW winds gusts to
around 25kts continue through the afternoon and evening, briefly
tapering off this evening before picking up again with the passing
disturbance overnight. Winds turn over the N/NW into Tuesday while
coming in slightly lighter.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Light winds of generally 20 knots or less this afternoon give way to
some southerly gusts of 20 to 25 knots this evening over the eastern
half of Lake Superior as a warm front traverses east through the
lake. Winds for a few hours die down to 20 knots or less by mid
Tuesday morning. However, by late Tuesday morning the system`s cold
front drops down from the north, bringing with it north-
northeasterly gales up to 35 to possibly (40% chance) 40 knots
across the central and eastern lake Tuesday; some moderate freezing
spray could (60% chance) could be seen over the eastern lake Tuesday
night. As the cold air advection behind the low ceases by Tuesday
evening, expect the winds to die down, eventually becoming 20 knots
or less again by Wednesday morning as a high pressure sets up over
the lake. This high pressure keeps the winds light across the lake
for the middle of this week. Stronger winds don`t look to show up
again until Thursday night, when an approaching front brings
southerly winds of 20 to 25 knots back across the lake. As it`s
parent low approaches from the Southern Plains Friday, expect the
winds over the eastern half of the lake to increase to 20 to 30
knots from the southeast, with a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots
being possible by Friday evening. As the low moves into Lake
Superior Saturday, expect winds to turn northerly to 25 to 30 knots
behind the low`s center from west to east across the lake. Strong
winds look to continue over Lake Superior into early next week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 8 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ243>245-
     263>266.

  Gale Warning from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LSZ267.

Lake Michigan...
  Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...TAP