893
FXUS63 KICT 130811
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
311 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some pockets of heavy rain are possible over southeast Kansas.

- Below normal temperatures are expected again today then a slight
  warming trend to start the week.

- Opportunities for rain continue through much of the upcoming
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Showers with an embedded thunderstorm or two were ongoing over
southeast KS early this morning and this activity was located
under a subtle shortwave trough and within the entrance region
of subtle upper jet. The best low-lvl moisture transport should
start to focus the more robust activity further east after
09-10Z. PWATs around 2 inches over southeast KS are helping to
produce efficient rainfall under slow moving showers and storms
but elevated CAPE wasn`t too impressive. We could start to see
some ponding of water or some minor low-land flooding,
especially if convection lingers through much of the day over
parts of southeast KS. The best chances for seeing showers and
storms lingering will remain over far southeast KS where we
remain weakly capped and the subtle sfc low remains nearly
stationary or moves very slowly eastward. Limited insolation
within a post-frontal regime will result in another seasonably
cool day with highs in the low 80s in far southeast KS while
more typical highs in the low 90s could materialize in parts of
central KS with some breaks in the clouds and lower dewpoint
temperatures.

Much of the area could get a break from the precipitation on Monday-
Tuesday as the pesky subtle upper system drifts northeast away from
the area. Another subtle upper wave is progged to be right on it`s
heels arriving over southeast KS late Monday into Tuesday. We
continue to see some differences in where this feature will track
but some low pops were maintained in southeast KS wile the remainder
of the area is expected to remain dry until Tuesday night. More
typical highs are anticipated Mon-Tue with 90s returning areawide by
Tue. By late Tue night, a shortwave trough over the Northern Plains
may help drive a frontal boundary southward. This front could
provide a focus for showers and storms late Tue night.

Wed-Sat...A frontal boundary may bisect the region on Wed as we
remain on the southern periphery of the stronger mid-lvl flow.
Showers and storms will remain possible along and north of the
boundary Wed night into Thu as a shortwave trough translates
eastward across the Central Plains. Cooler, below normal
temperatures are expected in the wake of the front with most areas
seeing highs in the upper 80s on Thu. This cooldown is expected to
be short-lived with rising heights/increasing thickness supporting
rising temperatures as we move into Fri-Sat. Mid and upper 90s may
return for much of the area as we move into next weekend with
isolated diurnally driven storms lingering over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Conditions remaining fairly active through the overnight and
early morning hours.

After a break from widespread rainfall this past afternoon and
evening, additional showers and storms are developing across
locations along and east of the Kansas Turnpike early this
morning. Some showers and storms may produce moderate to heavy
rainfall, and may be accompanied by lower cigs. At worst, MVFR
to IFR conditions may occur between KICT and KCNU (along with
locations in between and surrounding these TAF sites) with any
shower or storm.

After 12Z, shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to shift
eastward, and mainly southeast Kansas (including KCNU and
surrounding locations) will need to monitor for the possibility
for isolated showers and storms. Other locations across the area
will generally see VFR conditions.

Surface winds over the entire area are expected to remain light
and variable through the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JC