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000
FXUS63 KIWX 251004
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
604 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer temperatures this weekend with highs around 80.

- Periodic chances for rain and a few storms, particularly Friday
night and Monday.

- The risk of severe weather is low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Strong subsidence/surface high pressure remains anchored over the
Lower Great Lakes today. Low level flow gradually veers from
northerly to easterly through the day with ample sun allowing highs
to rebound to near 60F given dry airmass/deep mixing. Afternoon RH
values may drop close to 25 percent but winds remain light and
recent rain/greenup will preclude any fire wx concerns. Winds
continue to veer overnight with sharp midlevel ridge axis passing
Fri morning. Gradient tightens and weak WAA begins by late tonight.
This will keep frost chances limited. The only exception is in
our far E/NE where better radiational cooling conditions
persist the longest and lows in the mid 30s are anticipated.
Still not expecting widespread frost given steady gradient wind
though and will certainly not issue any headlines with current
frost/freeze headlines in place.

Attention then turns to pair of upper lows ejecting out of the
southwest CONUS and into Ontario late Fri-Mon. Deep S/SW flow ahead
of these features will advect very warm air into the region (850mb
temps near 15C). Highs near 80F on Sat and over 80F on Sun still
appear likely. The first round of rain will arrive late Fri
afternoon into Fri night associated with the initial warm front and
theta-e surge. Best mid/upper support remains well to our NW but
good 295-300K isentropic upglide will support numerous showers (best
chances NW). Instability parameters are a bit meager for strong
convection but enough to support a few embedded storms.

Precip chances Sat and Sun remain a bit murky. Baroclinic zone
remains draped just to our west and may clip our NW zones with some
showers at times. There is also continued warm/moist air advection
that could generate some isolated light showers further SE. Kept
broadbrushed NBM PoP`s but it should be noted that there will likely
be a lot of dry times for most of the area this weekend. Better
precip chances arrive late Sun night into Mon as cold front finally
gets pushed through our area with second upper low lifting into
Ontario. Here again forcing for ascent is not great nor is available
instability and there are also some timing discrepancies. Will
continue likely PoP`s with a low chance thunder mention.

Tue looks primarily dry at this point but we transition (at least
briefly) to a more zonal pattern and 00Z guidance suggests another
shortwave possible Tue night/Wed. Temps for the middle of next week
drop slightly but remain above average. There is considerable spread
in the placement of longwave features during the latter half of next
week so confidence drops significantly during that period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The low cloud deck had moved well south of FWA and will stay
south of the area. High clouds will spread over the area early
this morning along with patchy radiation fog. Can not rule out a
brief light radiation fog at both of the terminals. Otherwise,
VFR conditions with prevail with winds < 10 kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ005>009-018-
     027.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
     INZ012>015-017-020-022>026-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
     216.
OH...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ078>081.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Skipper