697
FXUS63 KIWX 132310
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
610 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog possible again tonight.

- 20-40% chances for rain Saturday night into Sunday morning, mainly
  along and south of US 30. Amounts less than 0.10".

- Highs in the 40s this weekend; several days with highs in the 50s
  likely next week.

- An active weather pattern returns with additional chances for rain
  and gusty winds for the later half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

High pressure over much of the eastern CONUS is bringing quiet and
dry conditions across our forecast area today. Skies are expected to
remain mostly clear overnight, which sets the stage for another
night with fog potential. Much like last night, winds are expected
to diminish after sunset. Patchy dense radiation fog will be
possible across the area, much like the past few nights. Models
vary widely with visibility on Saturday morning. My only
hesitation is that dewpoint depressions may end up being a few
degrees more than what they have been over the past few nights,
which may limit fog development. Confidence is low but the best
opportunity for any fog to develop would be between 06-13Z
Saturday.

Over the past few days, have been mentioning the presence of a
strong upper level trough and associated surface low across the
southern US. Well now, it appears that this system will be so far
south that it will be unable to provide adequate moisture to support
anything more than very light rain. In fact, high-res model guidance
continues to trend downwards on both precip chances and QPF. South
of US 30 will be on the far northern periphery of the system, with
light rain possible late Saturday into early Sunday. Amounts will be
vry light, only a few hundredths in most places, if any rain is
observed at all. With mid level dry air to overcome, it may
just end up as virga. Low chances for rain (15-25%) still exist
for late Saturday into Sunday morning, although best chances now
will be south of US 24. Areas along and north of US 30 will
stay dry.

A strong upper level ridge is then expected to build across the
central and eastern CONUS into early next week. Confidence continues
to increase for well above normal temperatures for the early and
middle parts of next week. The latest CPC 6-10 Day Temperature
Outlook continues to highlight high probabilities (70-90% chances)
for above normal temperatures. Ensemble models  Highs climb into the
40s over the weekend and then into the 50s by early next week. The
warmest day will likely be Wednesday before the ridge flattens out;
widespread highs in the low 50s are possible along and south of US
30 as a warm front lifts north. Highs in the 50s are likely; some
locations south of US 24 may even make a run at 60 degrees! A more
active pattern looks to resume with gusty winds, rain, and maybe
even some embedded thunder developing along and north of the
aforementioned warm front. Above normal temperatures continue
through at least late next week with perhaps additional chances for
rain with a system on Thursday/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

High pressure and dry air will maintain primarily VFR conditions
this period. There remains a chance for some patchy BR around
sunrise similar to this morning. However, moisture profiles are
highly marginal and visibilities could remain above 6SM. High
clouds begin to increase Sat evening ahead of the next system
but no impacts are anticipated.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...AGD