Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 171054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
654 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Much of the area will be dry through Tuesday night. Then a system
will exit the Southern Plains and approach midweek and bring a
chance for showers and storms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures the next couple of days will range from highs in the
lower to middle 70s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 412 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Weak low level convergence maintaining a few showers along and
north of I70/KIND-KCMH line. This activity to remain shallow given
stabilized airmass through entire region with frontal zone laid
out farther south. Reluctant to favor latest blend with
convection later today surging so far northward as broad
anticyclone remains over Upper Great Lakes and notable lack of
any assertive cross frontal component flow in surface to 8H layer
to provide northward impetus. Furthermore, ejection of Southern
Plains shortwave to take a decidedly south track through Ohio
Valley today.

Morning fog/patchy drizzle with expansive shallow saturation and
backed surface flow to limit destabilization. Less than 500 j/kg
in far southeast CWA this afternoon/evening, with only token
pop/lesser thunderstorm mention Marion to Lima given proximity of
frontal zone.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 412 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

More assertive upstream phasing of Sask and intermountain
shortwaves to emerge with broad longwave trough through Plains on
Tuesday. Leeside southeast Colorado cyclone lifts into central
Illinois drawing frontal boundary northward with renewed
convective chances. Frontal wave pushes through to Ohio River
Valley by Thursday evening and given decent moisture scour and
ridging surface/aloft have carved out dry period late Thursday
into Friday morning. Thereafter strong system presently over Gulf
of Alaska poised to undercut block over Central Canada leading to
a more active northern stream shortwave ejections amid open Gulf
flow from eastern Texas into midwest/southern portion of Upper
Great Lakes.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 647 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Both SBN and FWA terminals continued with IFR to very low IFR
conditions early this morning with a light northeast to east
flow. These conditions were north of front over central Indiana.
Light flow with relatively deep moisture will take the associated
low clouds some time to mix out this morning. For now, have IFR
ceilings until close to noon, with improvement to hopefully 2000
this afternoon. Concern for this upcoming night with a return to
IFR conditions. Have conditions becoming IFR overnight as the
stagnant pattern persists.




LONG TERM...Murphy

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