Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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231
FXUS63 KIWX 181034
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
634 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Isolated sprinkles are possible near Lake MI (far NW IN)
 through the morning hours. Otherwise, dry conditions are
 expected through Monday morning. Chances for showers and storms
 return Monday afternoon into Thursday next week, with the best
 chances Wednesday.

-High temperatures will be in the 70s and low to mid 80s through the
 week. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

-There is a high swim risk today for Lake Michigan beaches in
 Berrien County, MI and La Porte County, IN. A beach hazards
 statement is in effect through this evening. Dangerous waves
 and currents are expected. Waves are expected to subside
 through the afternoon, but current activity may persist long
 after waves subside. Those visiting the beaches should plan to
 stay out of the water.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 422 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

High pressure will keep our weather quiet through the weekend-a
welcome break from the active pattern we`ve had the past month or
two. The only concern today may be some isolated lake enhanced
sprinkles associated with a couple of shortwaves descending down
Lake MI this morning. Similarly, gusty Northerly winds up to 20-25
knots near the lake will diminish through the day, so waves of 4 to
5 feet (as of this writing) will subside gradually through the
afternoon to around 3 feet. Wave periods look to stay around 5-7
seconds though, in addition to persisting out of a northerly
direction (60 to 90 degree wave angle of approach relative to shore
for La Porte County, 30 to 59 degree wave angle for Berrien County).
So even though wave heights drop to around 2-3 feet, current
activity will likely persist into the early evening (especially at
beaches further south). Opted to extend the beach hazards statement
for both counties through 00z tonight.

Otherwise, the next chance for rain will be Monday afternoon into
Thursday, with the best potential on Wednesday where we have around
30-55 percent chances. Otherwise, daily chances range from 20-40
percent most of the other days. A broad upper level trough will
descend on the Great Lakes through Monday, then sharpening through
Thursday-with the ECMWF even developing an upper low centered over
northern Lake Michigan/Superior at the end of the week. Still a lot
of uncertainty with key features so left consensus pops, but it
appears to be more active once again.

High temperatures this week will be in the 70s and low to mid 80s,
coolest this weekend. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Skies were clear over much of northern Indiana, although some
stratocu 060 clouds were over Lake Michigan into northwest
Indiana. A fairly strong subsidence inversion will set up
today. Moisture trapped at and just under the base of the
inversion should allow some scattered cumulus and flattened
stratocu to form. Otherwise, VFR will prevail with winds under
10 knots.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...Skipper