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501
FXUS63 KIWX 101135
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
635 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 133 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

Quiet weather conditions will remain the weather story through
Tuesday as high pressure remains in control. Highs will be in the
30s with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. The second half of the
week will then feature chances for light snow Wednesday followed by
rain showers Thursday and Friday with highs warming into the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 133 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

Large lake aggregate stratus pool across MI will continue to advance
rapidly south through daybreak as sfc ridge sinks toward the OH
river by evening. Some erosion expected this aftn west and north as
stronger sw low level flow/mixing develops. Nonetheless some
downward adjustment in temps esp se third warranted today.

Aftn/eve clearing north and west expected to fill in again overnight
in association with weak sfc trough passage across the Great Lakes
as abundant moisture remains entrenched below stubborn/broad low
level thermal inversion present across the upper midwest/lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 133 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

Quiet wx through early Wed with ridging sfc and aloft in control.
Lead impulse driving through the nrn Rockies this aftn will amplify
ewd into the wrn lakes late Wed as strong warm advection spreads a
band of light snow across the area. Lack of more appreciable
moisture return and narrow window of strong/saturated ascent will
keep potential snow amounts in check with 1-2 inches plausible.

Late week period thereafter rife with uncertainty tied to handling
of intense wave wrapping up through the lower MS valley and degree
of potential phasing if any that may occur with concurrent wave
passing through the nrn lakes. Overall deterministic consensus trend
(growing) the last 2 days has been for more separation aloft with
strong cyclone holding south near the gulf coast however
considerable ensemble spread remains with a more phased/nrn OH
valley track not yet out of the cards. Latest model based blend
essentially washes these distinctions out as GEM solution counters
GFS/EC and at least affords some fading continuity with prior
guidance for dys 4-5 (Thu/Fri).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

Strong inversion at both sites, helped along by CAA, continues to
hang tough this morning, but will lift this afternoon as warm
advection comes in and helps CIGs rise from firmly in IFR at FWA
and MVFR at SBN into VFR with clouds breaking up too. VFR CIGs end
the day with backing winds remaining less than 10 kts. Later on,
as high pressure drifts south, a low pressure system slides by to
the north and the strengthening pressure gradient should help keep
fog at bay overnight tonight as sfc winds rise above 5 kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for LMZ043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Roller


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