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000
FXUS63 KIWX 150559
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
159 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Dry conditions will continue overnight into Wednesday morning,
but periods of showers and thunderstorms can then be expected for
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. High temperatures this
afternoon will range from 80 to 85. Friday into the upcoming
weekend will feature seasonable temperatures and low chances for
showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Continued dry/fair wx into tonight will give way to increasing
shower/storm chances tomorrow into tomorrow night as an upper trough
and associated weak sfc reflection lift into the region from the
Central Plains. Excellent moisture transport on the nose of a LLJ
will likely allow an arc of showers and embedded thunder to lift
into the area from sw to ne later Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening. Bumped PoPs/QPF as a result. More organized precipitation
associated with deeper moisture/lift may exit off to the east by
Thursday...but still expect at least scattered showers/storms around
given ample moisture/building diurnal instability near the lingering
shear axis. Lacking deep layer shear should preclude any larger
scale severe threat both Wednesday and Thursday, though an isolated
stronger storm and locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Mainly dry/seasonable wx is expected in the wake of this system
Friday into the upcoming weekend, though did retain low chances for
mainly diurnally driven showers Friday/Saturday as broad troughing
remains over the Midwest and Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

High level clouds will continue to stream across northern Indiana
overnight with VFR conditions continuing. The next upper level
disturbance will approach from west central Illinois today. A 30
knot low level jet preceding this upper disturbance will allow
for good low level moisture advection this afternoon. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
after 21Z as moisture convergence associated with this low level
jet/northward progressing warm front begin to affect northern
Indiana. Will include a window of VCTS mention from 21Z-02Z
accompanying greatest overlap of instability and forcing, although
scattered showers and storms will likely persist well into the
nighttime hours as upper trough is slow to track across the
region. Cigs should deteriorate to MVFR later this evening and
likely below fuel alternate criteria toward the end or just beyond
this forecast valid period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Marsili/Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Marsili


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