Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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405
FXUS63 KJKL 200748
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
348 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2018

The center of a surface high pressure system near the Corn Belt
will migrate across the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley today.
This has led to temperatures falling to near or below freezing for
much of eastern Kentucky this morning, resulting in widespread
frost. Shortwave ridging building east of the Great Plains will
bring rising heights aloft and subsequent warmer temperatures,
with highs warming into the low-mid 60s this afternoon.

Light north/northeast winds will be in store tonight as ridging
slides eastward and promotes favorable conditions for radiational
cooling once again. Areas of mainly valley frost will be in store
as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees. Ridges
look to remain in the mid-upper 30s and mostly void of frost given
fairly low dewpoints this afternoon. Have elected to hold off on
a Frost Advisory for tonight/Saturday morning at this point, but
will monitor temperatures/dewpoints through the day to assess the
potential for more widespread frost development.

Upper ridging cresting overhead Saturday will further warm
temperatures into the mid 60s to low 70s. Will see an increase in
cirrus cloud cover through the day downstream of a central Great
Plains disturbance aloft, but a persistent subsidence inversion
and lack of deep layer moisture will keep the first half of the
weekend dry.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT THU APR 19 2018

The period will begin with upper level ridging maximized across
the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This along with a surface high
will keep the region dry for Saturday into Saturday night. A
southern stream upper level low will slowly progress eastward into
the Lower Mississippi River Valley by Sunday and diffluence aloft
will help bring increased chances of rain to the Cumberland Valley
region by Sunday evening and night. Also, thought the blended
guidance seemed reasonable bringing some likely POPs into the far
south and based on the divergence aloft this would be most likely
to occur early in the day on Monday. This upper level low will
keep the weather unsettled as it rotates across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys into early next week. After this, the models
begin to diverge in solutions as they struggle with phasing of the
northern and southern streams. Given this could not justify
leaning away form the blended guidance for the later part of the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2018

VFR conditions will prevail with winds of less than 10 knots.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-080-086>088-104-106>120.

Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ079-083>085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GUSEMAN



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