Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 220748
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
348 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

Current conditions across the area feature some mid and upper
level cloud cover moving through the area. In addition, the last
of a few showers will move northeast out of the Bluegrass area.
With the cloud cover moving through, fog development has been
halted. A few spots in the south with some clearing will see some
visibility drop but this is the exception. The overall pattern
indicates a continued return flow with ample moisture continuing
to stream north into the OH Valley. This will be the case heading
into the day today. Model soundings indicate a continued PWAT
values of 1.65. Though as been the case for the pas several days,
the lack of a good impulse tracking by and organizing this
convection, the activity remains largely scattered despite the
amount of moisture being pumped into the region. Thus will go for
a good chance heading into today. A weakened front from the north
will begin push southeast through the day. Convection will
intensify a bit along this washed out boundary as it pushed
southeast. Will keep pop chances going through the day today and
into tonight. Despite the scattered nature of the showers and
storms, this is still a saturated air mass and any storm can put
down enough rain to cause some minor flooding issues. For tonight,
good saturation of the boundary layer will allow for fog
development with ongoing showers through the night slowly pushing
southeast. Behind the boundary, the hint of some clearing as some
dry air attempts to enter area will allow for some more widespread
fog to develop.

Heading into the day on Wednesday, the front will have pushed
southeast and slow along the TN and VA border. Will expect some
shower and a few thunderstorms to develop along the boundary and
especially in the higher terrain. Meanwhile clearing skies to the
northwest will allow temps to rebound into the low 80s. This is
still above normal despite the cooler air moving into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

The extended will feature alternating periods of wet and dry
weather across eastern Kentucky. The period should begin with rain
exiting the area on Wednesday, as a trough of low pressure aloft
pushes off to the east of the area. Wednesday night through
Thursday night should be dry, as a ridge of high pressure sets up
across the region. Another area of low pressure is then forecast
to push through over the weekend, bringing more rain chances to
the area from Friday afternoon through the end of the upcoming
weekend. The best chance for thunderstorms will be during the
afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will continue to run
above normal, with daily highs in the low to mid 80s and nightly
lows in the low to mid 60s expected for most locations. Valley fog
will also be possible each day during the late night and early
morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

Expect VFR conditions to persist through much of the night. The
only exception is in the north where some showers and
thunderstorms will be passing through to the north impacting SYM
as well. Later tonight, where clouds are slower to increase,
expect some valley fog to develop. This is especially true at SME
and LOZ. At least MVFR conditions will occur. Heading into the
day, showers and thunderstorms will once again develop, mostly by
15 and 16z. This activity will continue the evening. Coverage is
in question so went VCTS at the TAF sites. Outside of
thunderstorms, winds will be relatively light.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


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