Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 190803

National Weather Service Jackson KY
403 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2018

The latest surface map features low pressure moving across the
southern Plains. A weaker inverted trough is currently aligned
from the Tennessee Valley to the central Appalachians, with a more
defined warm front aligned from west to east across the Gulf
Coast States. Aloft, an upper level low is moving east across the
southern Plains. Some showers have broken out across the Tennessee
Valley overnight, thanks to some ongoing isentropic lift between
850 and 700 mb. Drier air in the low levels have kept this
activity out of eastern Kentucky.

The dry air will continue to keep most of our area precipitation-
free through the morning, with the exception of perhaps a few
sprinkles. Moisture will be on the increase this afternoon, as
the short wave and surface low continue to trek east across the
Mississippi Valley. Showers, and perhaps a few storms will
threaten from southwest to northeast, with the best rain chances
holding off until this evening as the surface low moves across
the eastern portion of the Commonwealth. Temperatures will top out
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Some dry slotting will work in after midnight and through the
morning on Tuesday, with less rain chances. Light precipitation
will then fill back in again across the area during the afternoon,
as a deeper trough takes shape across the eastern CONUS. The
surface low will be just off to the east, allowing for a good
gradient of temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will range from the mid
40s across our northwest to the mid 50s bordering Virginia.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 403 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2018

The long term forecast discussion will follow shortly.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)

Clouds will increase and lower through the period, with rain
showers and an isolated thunderstorm threatening from south to
north after 18z. In general, VFR conditions will hold on through
the afternoon, before lowering to MVFR/IFR by the evening, as
steadier rains move in. Light and variable winds overnight will
become east to east northeast at 5 to 10 kts by the afternoon.




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