Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 230228

National Weather Service Jackson KY
1028 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Issued at 1028 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

Storms to the north weakened just before they crossed into our
forecast area. Still a few showers a little farther north along
the cold frontal boundary, but instability is diminished and thus
thunder has been removed for the remainder of the overnight
period. With the cold front slowly sinking southward overnight,
kept in a slight chance for a few showers, although most areas
should stay dry overnight. Also, updated to include dense valley
fog as we have already seen locally dense fog developing in the
valleys. Its even been observed from here at our office, looking
down into the valleys. Issued an SPS to highlight the fog through
the overnight period. A dense fog advisory could be needed if fog
continues to expand.

UPDATE Issued at 759 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

Showers and storms in the south and east have come to an end or
exiting the area. However, a narrow line of showers and storms
associated with the main cold front is slowly creeping southward
across northern Kentucky. This activity may drop into the area,
mainly north of I-64 by 10 pm, before dissipating as it encounters
drastically lower instability further south. Thus, expect this
activity to weaken and dissipate as it moves into the area. This
will also help to limit the severe threat. Grids have been updated
to reflect these changes.

UPDATE Issued at 544 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

With activity now focused in the far east and south, have updated
to remove pops for much of the area through the evening hours. We
may see some isolated showers work in from the north this evening
and left some isolated pops in across the north mainly after 03z.
Otherwise, main focus for tonight will be on fog potential with
temperatures already around 70 in most areas and recent rainfall
adding into the equation.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 411 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

Showers and scattered thunderstorms continue to move through the
area this afternoon ahead of a surface cold frontal boundary
stretching roughly across Ohio and Indiana. This cold front will
slide southeast over the next 18 hours, passing to our south
Thursday morning. Last of showers will diminish across the higher
terrain to our southeast Thursday morning. Until then any
thunderstorms will be able to produce heavy rain, especially where
storms pass repeatedly over the same location. Have already had to
issue some flood products for portions of Pulaski as a result.

Otherwise, mid/upper ridging will build into the Midwest through
the short term providing a break in the unsettled weather we have
been experiencing on and off over the last few days. Temperatures
will continue to run above normal through the short term. We will
see highs climb to around 80 Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows
will drop into the low to mid 60s tonight and around 60 Wednesday

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

The period will begin with upper level ridge stretching from the
Southeast US into Canada. This combined with surface high pressure
will keep the area mostly rain free through Thursday. This high
amplitude ridge will suppress through the period, as a short wave
trough develops across the Upper Midwest. Then by the end of the
period we could see some interaction from a tropical system
developing in the Gulf of Mexico. The weakening upper level ridge
and interaction with Gulf Moisture will allow for at least
isolated to even some periods of scattered thunderstorms for much
of the end of the period. Given the more summer like pattern the
peak chances would be in the afternoon and early evening with the
day time heating. The lack of shear will keep much of this
activity unorganized, and by the weekend into early next week the
PWATs increase such that more heavy rainfall could come from any
thunderstorms that develop.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)

The evening will remain VFR with light winds. However, as a cold
front stalls out over the area tonight, locally dense fog or
stratus will likely develop across the area late tonight. Guidance
continues to hit the fog a bit harder, although moisture profiles
support some stratus. We could see fog at the onset, lifting into
more of a stratus layer. Either way, near airport minimums may be
seen late tonight into early Wednesday morning. The fog and
stratus will burn off by mid morning on Wednesday.




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