Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 142003

National Weather Service Jackson KY
403 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 316 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2018

Northwest flow has kept clouds and flurries over the eastern part
of the forecast area through the afternoon, but flurries will
finally end by early this evening. The overnight forecast
challenge is the low temperature forecast. Based on current
observed temperatures, at least a temporary break in cloud cover
for part of the night, and snow on the ground in some areas,
overnight lows will likely be lower than the blended guidance and
also the MOS guidance for the main ASOS sites. Some COOP MOS
guidance indicates lows in the teens, but that seems too cold.
Warm advection does set in overnight, and how long a break in
cloudiness occurs is uncertain. Have gone with lows mainly in the
25 to 30 degree range, but this will need to be monitored this
evening and likely adjusted.

With abundant mid March sunshine forecast for Thursday
temperatures will climb into the 50s in most areas, with highs
ranging from lower 50s north and east to upper 50s southwest.
A dry cold front will pass through the area Thursday before
stalling in the TN Valley Thursday night. Some overrunning
precipitation may develop north of this front over southern parts
of the forecast area by daybreak Thursday. Thursday night lows
should range from the mid 20s in the northern part of the forecast
area to the mid 30s in the south. If precipitation does develop, thermal
profiles support the idea of the possibility of a narrow ribbon
of very light snow or sleet on the northern edge of the
precipitation at the onset.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2018

The extended period will begin with a system coming in from the
west. The models are coming into better agreement with this first
disturbance, with both the ECMWF and GFS showing a cutoff low
transforming into more of a shallow trough as it moves over the
Ohio Valley the first part of the weekend. With the passage of
this first system, temperatures will be in the mid 40s to low 50s
during the day Friday. The precipitation will be mainly rain, but
a mix of sleet and freezing rain will be possible late Friday into
Saturday morning due to lower nighttime temperatures in the far
north/northeastern portion of the CWA. A brief period of ridging
will bring drier weather Sunday afternoon into the evening until a
more amplified trough moves in from the west later that night
into Monday morning.

This second disturbance looks to be a bit more amplified and has a
higher potential to bring in more precipitation than the early
weekend system. This is due to a warm front that will set up to
the south of the Commonwealth, and with south/southwesterly flow
will bring in ample Gulf moisture. The precipitation type will be
mainly rain for this second system, but a rain/snow mix is
possible late Tuesday into Wednesday morning as a passing cold
front ushers in colder air from the north into eastern Kentucky.
Therefore, after the weekend temperature warm up, temps will cool
down again into midweek next week.

The models agree overall in terms of timing for both systems.
However, there is still a bit of uncertainty with the
precipitation amounts due to the ECMWF running a bit cooler and
showing less QPF than the GFS. Confidence in timing has
increased, but future model runs will be monitored to see if the
models come into better agreement with the intensity of the second


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)

Northwest flow across the area continues to bring widespread
clouds to all but the far southwest part of the forecast area.
Ceilings were gradually lifting, but MVFR ceilings will persist
in the eastern part of the forecast area through the afternoon.
Scattered flurries and isolated snow showers have persisted,
resulting in very local visibility restrictions as well. Flurries
will end and clouds will continue to lift and decrease in
coverage, with VFR conditions expected overnight and into
Thursday. Late tonight and into early Thursday low level wind
shear is expected to develop.




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