Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 200243
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1043 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018

An area of clearing has now overtaken eastern Kentucky. With the
llvls still very moist from today`s rains, fog is an almost
certainty. In fact, we are already seeing reports of fog across
portions of eastern Kentucky. Removed any lingering pops in
forecast for the last hour or two, as things continue to shift
east of the area. There are a showers across far south-central
Kentucky, but the general trend of this convection is SE, so not
expecting them to make it into our CWA overnight. That being said,
the weather forecast is so far in good shape. Loaded in the latest
observations for temps, dew points, and winds, to make sure the
near term forecast was on track with the current conditions,
especially as we continue to clear out. All updates have been
published and sent to NDFD/web. A weather graphic was sent out to
highlight the fog potential overnight. Also added fog wording in
the HWO and sent out a new set of zones.

UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018

Showers and thunderstorms, along with the upper level wave aiding
in the energy, are exiting east of the state, with an area of
strong subsidence and clearing now moving across the central
portion of the state. This will continue to work across eastern
Kentucky throughout the evening and into the first half of the
overnight. Given yet another day of heavy precip across much of
eastern Kentucky, and the potential for subsidence and clearing as
we head into the overnight, expect fog to be a slam dunk. Even as
clouds begin to work back in late tonight and into the early
morning hours, expect fog to be in control.

In addition to updating grids throughout the afternoon/early
evening to make sure they reflected the ongoing convection, the
latest update has included a significant increase in the fog
across eastern Kentucky overnight. Wouldn`t be surprised if some
locations see widespread fog, especially in the river valleys and
in locations that received significant rains later in the day.
Also loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near term
forecast for temps, dew points, and winds was on track with the
current conditions. All grids have been published and sent to
NDFD/web. A new forecast package will be sent out shortly to
reflect these changes/additions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 426 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and overspread
eastern Kentucky this afternoon as an upper trough moves overhead.
These will continue to have the potential to produce small hail
and isolated wind gusts of up to 40-50 mph as cell mergers occur.
Locally heavy rain will be possible as updrafts initially grow and
ingest initially richer moisture. Will see these diminish early
this evening as subsidence slides in behind the departing trough
and instability decreases.

A complex of storms moving out of Missouri tonight into Sunday
morning should remain west and north of the Bluegrass region as
heights increase ahead of upper ridging nosing north of the
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Will then see some minimal
shower/storm chances through the day as adequate moisture remains
in place. Forcing will consist of some possible outflow
boundaries, potentially interacting with the Cumberland Plateau
and terrain features across southeast Kentucky. Temperatures
warming into the mid 80s should provide for sufficient
instability, with conditional storm chances based on mesoscale
forcing.

Greater storm chances will materialize Sunday evening into the
night as an upper impulse and frontal boundary approach the Ohio
Valley. Strong winds and heavy rainfall will be possible with
storms that fire ahead of the front as shear profiles should allow
for largely outflow dominated convection.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018

The extended will feature periods of showers and thunderstorms,
mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours, through
Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure is then forecast to bring a
short period of dry weather to eastern Kentucky from Wednesday
night through early Friday morning. A series of weak areas of low
pressure passing by to the south of the area may bring more rain
to eastern Kentucky Friday afternoon into Friday night, but with
the model data being a bit uncertain with this part of the
forecast, only small chances of rain have been included for next
Friday. Temperatures will be running well above normal across the
area, with daily highs maxing out in the low to mid 80s and
nightly lows only falling into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018

After another wet day across eastern Kentucky, an area of
clearing and subsidence is now moving in across the area. This
will lead to fog development throughout the night. In fact, expect
that most TAF sites could see periods of LIFR or below airport
min conditions by late tonight. That being said, another round of
VFR clouds are expected to begin setting in across eastern
Kentucky late tonight and into the morning hours. Still some
uncertainty on how or even if these clouds will affect the ongoing
fog, but erred on the side of pessimism, with conditions only
improving as we head into the daytime hours.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are then
forecasted for the afternoon and evening, but confidence is low on
the timing and impacts to the TAF sites, so kept VFR conditions
through the rest of the TAF period. Winds will be light and
variable through the night, becoming prevailing from the SW during
the day tomorrow, while remaining under 10 knots.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW


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