Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 261224 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
824 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018

Freshened up the hourly temperatures and POP trends through this
morning. Mainly scattered showers are currently affecting far
southeastern Kentucky, as a mid-level vort moves into the
Tennessee Valley. This wave gradually dampen with time; however,
with the larger scale trough moving in from the west, convection
should fill in across the area as we heat up.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018

The latest surface map features broad low pressure across south
central Canada with a strung out cold front aligned southward into
the Great Lakes, before becoming more stationary back across the
central Plains. Weak southwest flow is in place across the Ohio
and Tennessee valleys. Aloft, a broad trough is aligned along the
Mississippi Valley, with several embedded short waves/vorticity
maxima noted.

The broad trough will draw closer to the region today, allowing
for better areal convective coverage, with scattered to numerous
activity expected during the day. Storms should have a bit more
movement today compared to yesterday; however, with PWATs around
the 1.7 inch range, locally heavy rainfall will be a concern with
any persistent or training cells. More cloud cover and
precipitation will likely keep highs down a few degrees cooler
compared to yesterday, with most locations seeing mid 80s.

The convection will wane with the loss of heating tonight, with
areas of fog likely forming, despite thicker mid and high level
clouds. Lows will be in the mid 60s. The trough will gradually
dampen and slide to our east on Sunday. Mainly scattered
convection is expected with the better chances occurring across
far southeastern Kentucky. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018

The extended will be quite active with daily chances of showers and
storms and warmer than normal temperatures. Troughs of low pressure
aloft will bring scattered showers and storms to eastern Kentucky
Monday and Tuesday. The best chances for thunderstorms on both of
those days will be during the afternoon and early evening hours. The
rest of the week gets a bit tricky, as the remnants of subtropical
storm Alberto may be impacting our weather from Wednesday onward. As
of now, several different forecast models have Alberto having some
impact on our weather, its just a matter of exactly when Alberto
will move through the area and how long and how much it will rain as
a result. For now decided to got with a slightly modified version of
the blended model data, mainly to match up with neighboring offices,
due to the amount of uncertainty still in play. Will need to
continue monitoring the status of Albert and how the models are
handling him as the middle of next week approaches. At this time the
best chances of rain are expected from Wednesday through Friday as
Alberto moves through. Temperatures will continue to run above
normal during the period, with daily highs in the 80s and nightly
lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 824 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018

Convective coverage will increase through the day and will
continue to indicate showers with thunderstorms in the vicinity
from 16z through 00z for most locations. Any passing shower or
thunderstorm will bring temporary IFR or worse conditions to a
given location. Showers and storms will diminish after dusk, with
fog likely settling in the valleys between 06 and 12z Sunday.
Winds will average around 5 kts or less outside of any
thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN


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