Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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433
FXUS63 KJKL 250035 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
835 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018

00z sfc analysis shows low pressure moving past to the southeast
with northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph in its wake. Scattered to
numerous showers are pivoting through eastern Kentucky this
evening with mainly light amounts of QPF. Earlier a few in cloud
lightning flashes were noted over McCreary County, but this threat
has diminished with sunset. As a result, have updated the grids to
take out the thunder and also fine tune the PoPs, Wx, and fog
through the night. Currently, temperatures are in the the mid 50s
north and west to the the low 60s in the far southeast while
dewpoints are generally just a couple of degrees lower under
cloudy skies. Did also update the T and Td grids through the
evening per the latest obs and trends. These updated grids have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers. A freshened set of zones
and HWO have been issued, as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 404 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018

Forecast is fairly straight forward this afternoon. Storm system
responsible for all the the rain of recent is centered over
central Kentucky and is moving slowly eastward. Beginning to see
activity intensifying to our south and east as well. Thus can not
rule out some thunder across portions of the area through early
evening, pretty much in line with the inherited forecast. Winds
will shift out of the northwest behind the exiting system
overnight. Cooler air filtering into the region during the short
term will keep temperatures below normal levels, but drier weather
will begin to work its way into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018

A shortwave will pass across Tennessee on Thursday and models
starting to come into better alignment on this system. This means
precipitation chances are increasing for the southern and
southeast Kentucky areas as the system will be close enough to
yield some rain showers. This activity will linger into Thursday
night. A moisture starved cold front will then cross the area on
Friday. GFS continues to be the most aggressive with a few showers
possible during the day. However, most areas will likely stay dry
on Friday.

High pressure will then build in for the weekend. Some quasi-
cooler 850mb temperatures will spread into the area Sunday and
Monday behind another push of colder air, but with little cloud
cover, not sure we will see much impact from this push of cooler
air. The biggest impact may come during the overnight hours where
we could squeeze out some lows in the 30s Sunday night. Overall
the weekend is looking fantastic with highs near 70 under sunny
skies. Dry weather will then carry us into Tuesday with return
flow allowing for a modest warmup early next week. We could be
looking at temperatures making a run at 80 by Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018

A large and stacked weather system over the TN and OH valleys
continues to rotate to the east, at present centered southeast of
the state. Showers associated with this continue to pivot through
the area - more consistent in the south and east than the
northwest. Flight conditions will generally deteriorate through
the evening and overnight as the upper system slips over the area.
The poor aviation categories will be mainly from the CIGS as they
drop into IFR/LIFR territory. Winds will generally be light and
variably but also turn to out of the northwest as the sfc low
center continues to push eastward.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF



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