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000
FXUS63 KJKL 260849
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
449 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance of an isolated rain shower this afternoon. Otherwise,
  plenty of dry time expected.

-Becoming very warm this weekend into at least the middle of next
 week.

-Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially Monday
 night and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 429 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2024

High pressure over the Northeast US is retreating in response to a
low emerging from the Lee of the Rockies. This low has a warm front
draped across the southeast US. The associated warm front is already
spreading plenty of high clouds through our area, and this will
generally be the case through the day. There is a very low chance of
isolated showers this afternoon. Very dry air in the low-levels (dew
point depressions of 20 degrees, even at this hour) will be hard to
overcome with forcing disjointed well to our northwest. Nonetheless,
for consistency, have maintained the low shower chance.

Ridging aloft amplifies Friday night through Saturday, marking the
start of a very warm stretch of weather. As a result, certainly no
frost concerns Friday night. The ridge axis overhead Friday night
would suggest a chance for some fog, but southerly flow of 10mph or
so will likely preclude this along with large dew point depressions.
Highs on Saturday will crack 80 degrees for most.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 448 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2024

The period will start off Sunday in an amplified high pressure set-
up across the Ohio Valley, as a strong upper level low in the
Central Plains continues to push NNE. This will lead to enhanced SW
flow into Kentucky, resulting in well above normal temperatures.
Thankfully, this upper level low and associated surface low pressure
system will not push far enough eastward to impact Kentucky through
the day Sunday, leaving us with warm but dry weather and mostly
clear skies.

This set-up will persist into Monday morning as well, but things
start to transition by the afternoon. The upper level low will be
located in western Ontario by Monday afternoon, and weakening
substantially. A cold front will expand southward from the low
pressure system, and finally have moved far enough eastward to begin
slowly traversing Kentucky from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
afternoon. By this point, we will be quite a ways away from the
weakening parent low. So while widespread showers and thunderstorms
are likely along the boundary, it starts to lose structure by the
time it gets to eastern Kentucky. Not sure how strong of a system
this will be as a result. Soundings don`t really show a good
structure for thunderstorms, much less severe. Also, we aren`t
really transitioning to a colder airmass behind this frontal
boundary. The amplified ridge will continue to shift eastward, with
flow becoming more zonal behind, rather than a troughing pattern.
Therefore, there won`t be much of a clashing of cold and warm
airmasses. For instance, pre-frontal temperatures on Monday will be
in the mid and upper 80s. However, post-frontal temperatures on
Tuesday and Wednesday will still be in the low 80s.

Other than the fact that there will be zonal flow behind the
departing system (which should continue the above normal
temperatures), models really start to diverge in their solutions
from this point going forward. There was hope that over the last 24
hours models would start to come into better agreement for Wednesday
and Thursday, but it`s actually quite the opposite. For instance,
the GFS shows a secondary upper level low and surface based system
moving into Kentucky Wednesday night into Thursday with another
round of widespread precip. The ECMWF, on the other hand, is more
unorganized with this system, keeping eastern KY dry through a large
chunk of this period. They both show potential for yet a third
system developing to our west Wednesday night into Thursday, but
again with little agreement on the strength and footprint of
precip/convection.

Given the disagreements, the NBM went with isolated to scattered
convection from Wednesday onwards, and much like yesterday morning,
don`t have the confidence in any of the models to change this. More
than likely there will be dry periods and potentially likely to
widespread precip periods, but without the models being in better
agreement, scattered/chance pops will suffice.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2024

Existing TAFs were in excellent shape; few to no changes. High
pressure in control, though a deepening low in the Central Plains
is spreading high clouds well east ward along the warm front. As
these features move north through the day clouds will increase
some and showers will dot the area, primarily toward KSYM very
late in the TAF period. However, a very dry forecast sounding
likely precludes rain reaching the ground. Thus, dry TAF
continues.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...BROWN