Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 161842
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
242 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 242 PM EDT MON APR 16 2018

Eastern trough will continue to keep eastern Kentucky cold through
tonight. Current rain/snow shower activity will slowly taper of
flurries and sprinkles this evening before coming an an end. The
activity may hold on a bit longer than expected as the trough
remain fairly stout into the evening hours. While gradient will
remain tight tonight, allowing for some wind, temperatures should
get below freezing allowing the freeze warning to continue. The
lake wind advisory will also continue into this evening until
winds can diminish a bit.

The upper trough will start to lift out tomorrow with heights on
the rebound across the region. This will lead to generally clear
skies on Tuesday. However, decent mixing could keep winds rather
gusty out of the west. With the high pressure pushing across the
area Tuesday night, should see some nice ridge/valley splits.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT MON APR 16 2018

The period will be met with rising heights, as an upper level
ridge advects eastward across the Ohio Valley. This along with
developing warm front lifting into the Ohio Valley will provide
warm air advection Wednesday, as afternoon high temperatures climb
into the low to mid 70s. An upper level low to our northwest will
pull a surface low into the Great Lakes, with an attendant cold
front pushing into the region late Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Overall the upper level forcing will be quite weak and
not much in the way of moisture return, and therefore this will
lead to light QPF and low POP chances Wednesday afternoon and
evening. In the wake of the front, expect cooler weather to ensue
once again, as 850mb temperatures drop back below zero Thursday.
An area of surface high pressure and upper level ridging will lead
to another period of dry weather, with frost possible Friday and
Saturday mornings. There will be some modification to round out
the period, with afternoon highs climbing back into the 60s for
Saturday and Sunday. Then a southern stream upper level low will
progress eastward and this will lead to chances of rainfall along
a developing warm front late Saturday night into Sunday.

The overall long range models are showing reasonable agreement in
the general synoptic patterns. There remains some timing
differences in the upper levels especially toward the end of the
period this weekend. Given this was able to stick closer to the
blended model data for most of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT MON APR 16 2018

MVFR cigs will lift to VFR this afternoon before eroding through
the overnight hours tonight. Some clouds may hang on in northeast
Kentucky, but are expected to remain VFR. Gusty west winds will
subside this evening, and remain steady out of the west on
Tuesday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for KYZ051-052-
060-079-080-083>085-106.

Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS



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