Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 170826

National Weather Service Jackson KY
426 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 426 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2018

The short term forecast discussion will follow shortly.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 426 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2018

The long wave pattern looks to be fairly amplified as well as
progressive next week. The model agreement with regards to the
smaller scale features is pretty good early next week, but then
lowers through the rest of the period.

A southern stream system will be moving quickly east out of the
Four Corners region, reaching the mid-Atlantic by early Tuesday
morning. A developing warm front will bring a return of showers to
the area late Sunday night. Surface low pressure will be
developing and moving east into the Tennessee Valley Monday into
Monday night, bringing widespread showers to the area, with at
least a small threat of thunder.

Northwest flow will linger behind the departed low pressure on
Tuesday, with the northern stream lending energy, and carving out
a deeper trough across the eastern CONUS through mid-week.
Precipitation will linger across eastern Kentucky, with colder air
allowing for a snow threat, particularly across the higher
terrain by Tuesday night. There remains a bit too much
uncertainty at this point to play up any more specific impacts.

Drier conditions will work in by Wednesday evening, as ridging
moves in from the west. Dry weather will continue through early
Friday, before the next potential system moves in by late in the
day. Favored a slower arrival of the precipitation, given the
disagreement this far out. Near normal temperatures initially will
cool to well below normal by Wednesday, before gradually warming
once again towards the end of the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)

A warm front is currently moving northward into eastern Kentucky
and will continue to shift north through the state throughout the
overnight hours. This warm front will then quickly be followed by
a passing low pressure system across the southern portion of the
state during the day today, exiting SE of the state by this
evening. In response to these systems, abundant moisture flow into
the region will result in thickening and lowering clouds for the
period as well as precip impacts, including the chance for thunder
at all TAF sites (with possibly the exception of SYM which will
remain north of the warm front).

CIGS will lower to MVFR from west to east between 9 and 13Z, with
rain showers and isolated T expected to move in during this time
as well. CIGS will continue to deteriorate to IFR at KSYM, KJKL,
and KSJS by around noon even as rain chances cease briefly for the
early afternoon. -SHRA and VCTS will then return for the late
afternoon and evening with continued IFR to MVFR CIGS. Thunder
potential will cut off by around 0Z, and rain chances will start
to diminish from west to east throughout the rest of the TAF
period as the low pressure system exits to the SE. However, low
CIGS are expected to persist. Winds will generally be light and
variable under 10 knots throughout the period. Some wind shear
will be possible at KSME, KLOZ, and KJKL during the morning hours.




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