Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 150715

National Weather Service Jackson KY
315 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2018

Current conditions across the area features some mid level cloud
cover passing through the area, mainly in the northeast and
eastern Kentucky. This is associated with the last of the upper
low exiting to the northeast as it brings some moisture south on
the back end of the low. This will clear out heading into the
coming day as westerly winds and clear skies will allow afternoon
temps to warm into the 50s and even around 60 in the south.
Increasing gradient from the ridge over the southeastern CONUS
shifting east and the exiting trough over the northeast will allow
strong westerly winds to engage through the day this afternoon.
In fact, may see some 25 to 30 MPH winds at times.

Heading into tonight, will expect clear skies to start off the
evening before some mid and lower level cloud cover to push in
from the east. This allow for a ridge to valley temperature
difference to begin the night but will slowly disappear as cloud
cover increases through the night and winds switching around to
the north. A warm front developing and extending east will allow
precip to develop into the area by mid morning. One change in the
model trends, shows a later arrival of precip, thus the cold air
should be scoured out of the valleys by this time. Will not expect
any freezing precip with this event as it unfolds into the late
morning hours of Friday. With the slow development, will expect
showers to develop into southern Kentucky. Many locations to the
north will not see any showers develop into the north until Friday
evening. This will also slow the northerly lift of the front
keeping temps fro Friday afternoon in the upper 40s and low 50s
for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2018

The extended period will begin with a system coming in from the
west. The models are coming into better agreement with this first
disturbance, with both the ECMWF and GFS showing a cutoff low
transforming into more of a shallow trough as it moves over the
Ohio Valley the first part of the weekend. With the passage of
this first system, temperatures will be in the mid 40s to low 50s
during the day Friday. The precipitation will be mainly rain, but
a mix of sleet and freezing rain will be possible late Friday into
Saturday morning due to lower nighttime temperatures in the far
north/northeastern portion of the CWA. A brief period of ridging
will bring drier weather Sunday afternoon into the evening until a
more amplified trough moves in from the west later that night
into Monday morning.

This second disturbance looks to be a bit more amplified and has a
higher potential to bring in more precipitation than the early
weekend system. This is due to a warm front that will set up to
the south of the Commonwealth, and with south/southwesterly flow
will bring in ample Gulf moisture. The precipitation type will be
mainly rain for this second system, but a rain/snow mix is
possible late Tuesday into Wednesday morning as a passing cold
front ushers in colder air from the north into eastern Kentucky.
Therefore, after the weekend temperature warm up, temps will cool
down again into midweek next week.

The models agree overall in terms of timing for both systems.
However, there is still a bit of uncertainty with the
precipitation amounts due to the ECMWF running a bit cooler and
showing less QPF than the GFS. Confidence in timing has
increased, but future model runs will be monitored to see if the
models come into better agreement with the intensity of the second


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)

Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period as high pressure
will be in place. The only cloud cover expected will be s mid
level layer passing through. Increased gradient through the first
6 hours will make for a LLWS at the TAF sites. That wind will mix
to the surface later today with some west winds gusting up to 25
knots in some locations.




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