Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 190634
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
234 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 234 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018

Precip has largely died out, and there probably won`t be much
redevelopment during the night. Therefore, have cut back on the
POP through the overnight hours.

UPDATE Issued at 1032 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

Continued to track showers and thunderstorms throughout the
evening. With the loss of daytime heating, and the surface
boundary moving farther north, we are finally starting to see
things subside across eastern KY. Will keep likely pops across the
far northern CWA for the next hour or two as things continue to
wind down. Kept with isolated to scattered pops overnight as there
may continue to be some pop up convection throughout the night.
Still expecting the best instability to drop off soon however, so
went with only rain after midnight.

Also updated the near term forecast with the latest observations
for temps, dew points, and winds. All updates have been finalized
and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast package and HWO will be sent
out to remove evening wording.

UPDATE Issued at 746 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

Made some adjustments so far throughout the evening to pops and
weather, as we continue to monitor showers and thunderstorms
moving through the area. The best coverage is now across the
northern half of the CWA, where we have likely pops, with more
scattered convection across the southern CWA. Expect a diminishing
trend in showers and thunderstorms as we continue to head through
the evening and lose daytime heating. A new forecast package was
sent out to reflect the changes in the pops/weather. Updates have
also been made to make sure the hourly temp, wind, and dew points
forecasts match up with current observations. All updates have
been published and sent to NDFD/web. Will continue to monitor
radar and make more updates to pops/weather as needed as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be ongoing across
eastern Kentucky this afternoon through early this evening. This
activity should taper off to isolated to scattered showers and
isolated storms tonight, after we lose daytime heating. Showers
and storms should begin to increase in number again by mid to late
Saturday morning, as a trough of low pressure moves across the
region. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated instances of flooding
will be possible on Saturday, especially during the afternoon and
early evening hours. The rain should steadily taper off Saturday
night, as the trough moves off to our east. Temperatures will
continue to run above normal, with lows the next two nights
expected to fall only into the low to mid 60s, with highs on
Saturday forecast to max out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Winds
should be generally light and variable outside any thunderstorms
or intense rain showers.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

Mean ridging across the western Atlantic coupled with progressive
flow aloft from Canada through the Tennessee Valley and a nearby
frontal boundary will keep a warm and unsettled pattern in the
offing across eastern Kentucky. High temperatures will continue to
range in the low-mid 80s with lows generally cooling into the low-
mid 60s.

Despite weak upper ridging and relatively lower moisture moving in
Sunday, the approach of some weak height falls and a frontal
boundary combined with residual moisture will bring the chance for
showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon into the evening.
Increasing return flow, approach of an upper impulse pushing into
the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and proximity of the
aforementioned front will bring better chances of showers and storms
Monday. A northern stream disturbance rotating through Quebec by
midweek will attempt to push the frontal boundary south across
eastern Kentucky, creating additional shots for rainfall.

May see an overall lull in precipitation later Wednesday into
Thursday behind the front and ahead of a surface ridge off to the
north as drier northwest flow filters in through the upper
levels. However, speedy return flow via energy approaching out of
the west will bring rain chances back by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018

Precip within the forecast area is almost gone, and there are many
breaks in the clouds. Despite poor conditions which affected some
locations during the evening, improvement has occurred and most
places were VFR to start the new TAF period. With light winds,
moist air, and breaks in the clouds, there is concern for fog
development again during the night. However, in light of the
improvement which has occurred, opted for just tempo lines in the
TAFS for sub VFR conditions.

With an upper level trough passing over during the period of
diurnal destabilization on Saturday, will expect showers and
thunderstorms to again develop. Most places should have rain and a
deterioration of conditions for a time. However, it should not be
a prolonged event, and there is not enough confidence in specific
timing to justify more than VCTS in TAFs at this point. The
convection should die out again Saturday evening with loss of
heating, and also due to the upper level trough departing to the
east.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...HAL



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