Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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070
FXUS63 KJKL 192227
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
627 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 344 PM EDT THU APR 19 2018

Surface high pressure is currently centered across southern
Minnesota. Aloft, a trough is moving towards the Eastern Seaboard,
with ridging centered across the Plains. A much cooler day has
been on tap for eastern Kentucky in the wake of the cold front
that passed through last night. Temperatures are running 30 to 35
degrees colder compared to yesterday at this time at most
locations.

Skies will gradually clear out tonight as high pressure builds in
from the northwest. This will set the stage for lows in the upper
20s to lower 30s for most sites, and will continue to let the
current frost/freeze headlines ride. Friday will feature a mostly
sunny day, with highs generally in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Drier air will likely mix down in the afternoon, allowing for
another cooler night in the valleys for Friday night. Lows will
modify somewhat, but still expect at least some lower 30s in the
typically colder locations with areas of frost.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT THU APR 19 2018

The period will begin with upper level ridging maximized across
the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This along with a surface high
will keep the region dry for Saturday into Saturday night. A
southern stream upper level low will slowly progress eastward into
the Lower Mississippi River Valley by Sunday and diffluence aloft
will help bring increased chances of rain to the Cumberland Valley
region by Sunday evening and night. Also, thought the blended
guidance seemed reasonable bringing some likely POPs into the far
south and based on the divergence aloft this would be most likely
to occur early in the day on Monday. This upper level low will
keep the weather unsettled as it rotates across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys into early next week. After this, the models
begin to diverge in solutions as they struggle with phasing of the
northern and southern streams. Given this could not justify
leaning away form the blended guidance for the later part of the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 626 PM EDT THU APR 19 2018

VFR conditions are forecast through the period, with winds less
than 10 kts. Any lingering VFR ceilings should dissipate this
evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-080-086>088-104-106>120.

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for KYZ079-083>085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL



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