Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 181957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
357 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 357 PM EDT WED APR 18 2018

The latest surface map features quick-moving low pressure
currently centered across western Indiana, with a trailing cold
front aligned southwest, just west of the Mississippi River.
Aloft, an amplified pattern is dominant across the northern
half of the CONUS, with an upper level low spiraling across
northern Iowa, and a short wave trough rotating down from
southeast Ontario. Eastern Kentucky has been enjoying a nice warm
up today out ahead of the approaching cold front, with current
temperatures exceeding 80 degrees in several places.

Clouds will be on the increase this evening, as the cold front
approaches from the west. Shower activity will develop along the
boundary and should yield likely rainfall across eastern Kentucky,
although QPF will average less than a tenth of an inch. Winds
will be strongest along and behind the front, with gusts still
looking to approach 40 mph in the western half of the area, with
30 to 35 mph in the east.

There will be a lull in the action after midnight from west to
east, with even some partial clearing, before a trough axis
swings through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by dawn.
Temperatures will turn quite a bit colder behind the front, with
upper 30s expected for lows by early Thursday morning. The passing
trough will bring another influx of low level clouds and perhaps
a few showers across northeastern Kentucky through the morning.
Clouds will hang tough through the day, gradually diminishing from
southwest to northeast in the afternoon. Highs will be some 25 to
30 degrees colder compared to today, with upper 40s to lower 50s
expected.

Skies will clear out Thursday night, as high pressure builds in
from our northwest. Lows will dip to around the 30 degree mark in
the valleys, with areas of frost likely. Will continue to
highlight this concern in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT WED APR 18 2018

An area of surface high pressure is expected to be centered across
the Upper Midwest on Friday and upper level ridge will progress
east with the surface high Saturday. This will lead to a period of
mostly clear skies and dry conditions through the first portion of
the long term period. The temperatures will modify through the
weekend, but does remain cold enough for Friday night into
Saturday morning to lead to frost. Then a southern stream upper
level low will progress out of the four corners into the Lower
Mississippi River Valley by Sunday afternoon. The model guidance
has struggled with continuity and consistency, with regards to the
southern stream system. The GFS has leaned the wettest for the
late weekend and the other models have leaned wetter toward Monday
and Tuesday time frame. This becomes further convoluted as we see
phasing potential by early to middle of next week. Given the lower
confidence leaned toward the blended guidance which brings slight
to chance POPs slowly north late Sunday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT WED APR 18 2018

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through 00z, with southwest
winds becoming gusty. Sustained winds of 10 to 15 kts, with gusts
in the 20 to 30 kt range will occur, especially along and west of
a line from KSYM to KLOZ. A cold front will move through eastern
Kentucky tonight, generally between 01 and 05z. Expect
ceilings/visibilities to lower to MVFR at times with the frontal
passage, along with some shower activity. Winds will shift to the
west behind the front, with wind gusts peaking in the 25 to 35 kt
range. The front will exit overnight, with west to west northwest
winds gradually diminishing. A more solid MVFR cloud deck will
move in after dawn Thursday morning, as an upper level disturbance
moves east across the area. West to northwest winds will likely
turn gusty once again during the day.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>085-104-106-108-111-114.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN


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