029
FXUS63 KLMK 110726
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
326 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Breezy Saturday with brief light rain possible in southern
    Indiana and northern portions of central Kentucky.

*   Lots of sunshine with moderate temperatures and light breezes on
    Sunday.

*   Active pattern next week with almost daily chances of showers
    and storms Monday through Friday. Best chance for a dry day will
    be Thursday. Severe weather is not expected through at least
    Thursday. Strong storm chances may increase slightly by Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Currently, satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over southern
Indiana and central Kentucky. A few mid-layer clouds remain, but
they are on the move, leaving clear skies behind. Some light fogging
can be seen, mostly in the Lake Cumberland area, but for the rest of
the night, things should remain quiet as temperatures drop into the
mid 40s in the eastern Bluegrass to the low to mid 50s along and
west of Interstate 65.

To the north, a low pressure system over the Great Lakes has a
trailing cold front stretching through the Chicago area. In the
coming hours, shortly after sunrise, the front will make it closer
to Louisville. This will bring added forcing to a fairly dry
atmosphere. Precipitable water values ahead of the front will top
out around three quarters of an inch. Model soundings show moisture
in the mid-levels, in the 800-700mb level, but below and above that
things are dry. Around the 700mb level, an inversion is in place
which would further limit convection. With this being said, the
front could produce a broken line of showers. The southwest extend
is expected to be limited with better chances along and northeast of
a line from Louisville to Lexington, but later this afternoon,
precipitation chances could extend into the Lake Cumberland region.
With the low dry levels, virga will also be possible. The front will
provide a better chance for some scattered to broken 5-10,000 foot
clouds to pass overhead. Light southwest winds will veer towards the
northwest and gust to 20-25 mph as the front passes. This will help
hold temperatures to the low to mid 70s for highs.

Tonight, surface high pressure to our southwest will move a little
father to the east. This will help winds to begin backing as they
ease towards the southwest. Model soundings show a near surface
inversion and a dry profile, resulting in strong radiative cooling
which could result in some patchy fog. Lows are expected to drop
into the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Sunday - Sunday Night...

Dry NW flow aloft and surface high pressure will control our region
to end the weekend. This should yield a very nice Sunday with mostly
sunny skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Sunday night
also remains dry, although will begin to see some mid and upper sky
cover return. Lows will dip into the low and mid 50s.

Monday - Wednesday...

A closed low over the central Plains will slowly meander toward our
region early week, and then over our region and eastward by mid
week. This moisture laden system will already have some Pacific
moisture, and then will have plenty of time to draw on Gulf of
Mexico moisture as it approaches. As a result, expecting PWATs to
surge up around 1.5" through the column by Tuesday, lingering around
that range through early Wednesday before the center of the system
pushes east. Not a whole lot of instability to work with, although
there may be a bit more CAPE to work with by Wednesday. Overall,
soundings take on a mostly tall/skinny type of profile, and given
high PWATs and not a lot of speed shear in the column (slow
movement), heavier showers/storms are the biggest concern.

Monday starts out dry, however some isolated to scattered showers or
possibly a storm could develop by afternoon, mainly west of I-65.
From there, Tuesday looks pretty wet with continued categorical
pops. Coverage scatters out a bit by Wednesday, but could still have
some intense rainfall rates given a bit more instability. Right now,
QPF is expected to be mostly in the .75" to 1" through Wednesday.
For context, probabilities of greater than 1" through Wednesday are
around 40%, but fall to below 20% for greater than 1.25".

Temperatures look to be in the 70s each day, with just how warm
dependent on breaks in the rain, and perhaps a few peeks at the sun.

Wednesday Night - Thursday...

Looks like we should get a brief period of dry Wednesday night
through Thursday with upper riding and surface high pressure in
place. NBM still wants to paint some scattered pops for later
Thursday into Thursday night, but I generally like a deterministic
consensus over NBM at this range. Looking for highs a degree or two
either side of 80.

Thursday Night - Friday...

Overall consistent signal for another shortwave arriving by late
week, although the fine details are still quite erratic amongst the
models. In general, it appears that shower and storm chances will
increase by Friday ahead of an ejecting system out of the Plains.
Looks like there could be more instability to work with, and perhaps
more shear too, depending on which model solution ends up verifying.
If so, a few stronger storms would be possible. Way to early to
speculate more much more than that, but a day to watch.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 154 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

The forecast remains on track. VFR conditions are expected to last
through the period. Currently, skies are mostly clear. This will
remain until a cold front nears SDF around 12z. Scattered to broken
VFR ceilings are expected to pass over the TAF sites. A little light
rain could fall around SDF and LEX, but a drop in visibilities and
ceilings isn`t expected. With dry low levels in place, virga in
these areas could be more likely. The front will however bring gusty
winds and wind shifts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...KDW