Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 171949
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
249 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy and warmer conditions on Tuesday may bring a fire risk
  to the area.

- An active northwest flow pattern will bring additional chances
  for precipitation the second half of the week and into next
  weekend.

- There are indications that a significant storm system may
  impact the Midwest early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The cold core thermal low will slowly rotate through the area
tonight into Monday morning. Thus plenty of clouds are expected
tonight with the potential for scattered flurries.

Late Monday morning and into the afternoon, clouds will clear from
west to east but temperatures are still expected to remain below
normal for mid-March.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Monday night through Wednesday night
Assessment...high confidence on dry conditions

The global models keep windy and dry conditions across the area. A
modified Canadian polar front will sweep through the area on Tuesday
bringing cooler conditions to the area for Wednesday.

There may be a fire risk across the area on Tuesday with the warmer
temperatures. The spring green up is barely underway and the amount
of green up will determine the overall fire risk.

Attention then turns to the second half of the week and weekend.

Thursday through Sunday
Assessment...high confidence on an active weather pattern. Low to
medium confidence regarding precip timing and potential impacts.

Northwest flow setting up across the CONUS will create an active
weather pattern late this week and into next week with several
systems potentially impacting the Midwest.

The global models continue to indicate a storm system moving through
the Midwest in the Thursday through Friday time frame. The track and
timing differences have narrowed but are still quite large.

Right now the model consensus is targeting Thursday afternoon and
night with the highest precipitation chances; 20-40 and 40-70
percent respectively.

There is still some spread in the respective ensembles which would
dictates the potential ptype. However, it is becoming apparent that
the dominate precipitation type will be snow, especially Thursday
night. A rain/snow mix should be seen Thursday afternoon with rain
in the far south.

If snow is the dominate ptype north of I-80 Thursday night, some
accumulation is possible on grassy and elevated surfaces if snowfall
rates are high enough. An educated guess right now would be a
dusting to around 1 inch of accumulation north of I-80 with the
higher amounts in the highway 20 corridor.

Friday into Friday night will be interesting.

Some model solutions suggest another weak system right on the heels
of the departing system while other have no system.

During the day Friday there may or may not be lingering
precipitation across the area. The model consenus puts the
probability of precipitation at 20 percent.

If the second system does occur, the model consensus appears to be
indicating Friday night as the most likely time with 20-30 percent
pops. Ptype will be dependent on what occurs Thursday night but may
be in the form of snow along/north of highway 30 with rain south.

Saturday into Sunday the global models are suggesting a significant
system developing in the Plains and moving through the Midwest.
There appears to be loose agreement with the models that the center
of the storm system would remain west of the area. If correct the
area would remain on the warm side with rain and the potential for
thunderstorms, especially along the strong cold front that will
eventually sweep through the area.

There are considerable differences in the overall timing and track
of the system this far out. However the overall model consensus is
starting to indicate Saturday night into Sunday as being the most
favorable time for precipitation at 40-50 and 50 to 60 percent
respectively.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Winds gusting up to 30 knots will create low level mechanical
turbulence through sunset. This low level mechanical turbulence
will re-appear around 15z/18 as the inversion again breaks and
winds gust up to 25 knots. Otherwise expect VFR ceilings with
scattered flurries.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08


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