Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 150557
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1257 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather is expected across the outlook area tonight
  with numerous showers and storms well to the south across
  portions of southern Illinois.

- Highs in the 50s Friday and Saturday, with Saturday also windy
  and turning much colder Saturday night.

- After lows in the teens and 20s Sunday night, temperatures
  warm back into the 50s by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Over the next few hours, the primary concern will be if we can
get storm development across portions of our southern CWA.
Thankfully, morning convection has allowed for a more southward
push of the surface frontal boundary, which has been captured
fairly well in the morning global deterministic guidance and
CAMs. An elongated surface low stretching from north central
Illinois into northern Oklahoma and an intense jet core aloft
(with speeds around 90-100 kts) will provide enough lift to
help fire up storms near the frontal boundary early this
afternoon. Favorable deep layer shear of around 60-80 kts, mid-
level lapse rates around/greater than 7 C/km and MLCAPE on the
order of 1500 J/kg will be more than enough to make any
thunderstorm that develops along it strong or severe.

The latest SPC outlook has a Level 2 (slight) risk of severe
thunderstorms mainly for small portions of McDonough and Putnam
counties in Illinois, with a Level 1 (marginal) risk extending not
too far to the north. I hold on to the thinking that storm
development will be more muted across our area thanks to the
persistent clouds, dominant northwesterly surface flow and the
atmosphere being worked over from early AM convection. However,
should convection develop, it would be focused mainly in the
aforementioned areas with the threat persisting through about
600 PM.

Once the front shifts further south, north winds will become
gusty and will help to usher in cooler Canadian air. Skies will
clear with temperatures Friday afternoon climbing into the mid
50s. Lows tonight will drop into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Saturday through Monday...

Flow will turn somewhat zonal for a brief time Friday night,
helping temperatures recover somewhat back into the 50s/60s
Saturday afternoon. However, this will be short lived as a
reinforcing cold front will follow for late Saturday afternoon
and evening. Ahead of the front, we will have deep mixing with
winds out of the west gusting to 30 MPH and RHs dropping into
the 30s. As mentioned in the previous AFD, may have to monitor
fire wx concerns as latest GFDI values climb into the `very
high` category.

Once the front passes Saturday afternoon, temperatures will drop
with lows during the night plummeting into the 20s for most. Highs
Sunday and Monday will only climb into the 30s/40s, with a low
potential (< 15%) for an isolated rain or snow shower during the
daytime due to a passing disturbance.

Tuesday on...

Ridging will build back across the central US into the western
portions of the Midwest by the middle of next week. This should
send our temps back up unto the 50s/60s during the daytime and
lows in the 30s during the night. The only chance of precip will
come Thursday as guidance attempts to bring a clipper system
into the area. However, there is not much agreement on coverage
or precipitation type given the proximity of cold air to the
area, so expect more changes to the forecast in subsequent
packages for this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue at all sites except for
BRL where a MVFR deck will be stubborn to clear out tonight. It
Once it does, winds will be the main aviation concern with
sustained winds in the 10 to 12 kt range during the day. Does
not look very gusty today, but if there are any gusts they would
be under 20kts.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Gibbs


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