Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 192324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
624 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018


Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

This afternoon a 998 surface low was located over SW MO. North of
the low across our area, winds were out of the east. Winds were
gusting into the 20 knot range across the area. High clouds from
the surface low moved into the area today. This surface low will
drive weather through the short term period


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Quiet weather pattern through the short term period as low
pressure moves south of the area. Northwest flow tonight will keep
clouds across the area as a weak wave ripples through the flow.
This will aide in slightly warmer temperatures tonight. Tomorrow,
expect clouds most of the day with temperatures much like today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Long term forecast is quite the forecast with the potential for
high impacts this weekend across the upper Mississippi River
Valley. At the current time, even though guidance has trended to a
more southern track for the weekend system, confidence remains
very low in the forecast for that period.

Tuesday night through Thursday morning, quiet weather is expected
overall as high pressure moves into the central CONUS. Largescale
flow features prominent high amplitude ridge moving across the
area. This will aide in bringing in warmer air towards Thursday.

Thursday, guidance has cut back on QPF, however there still
appears to be a chance for precip as a weak H5 wave will move
across an elevated warm front across the area. Looks like coverage
of precip will be confined to a small area that looks to be a
moving target. Expect this forecast to change through the period.

Friday into the weekend, the forecast becomes complicated and will
likely lead to changes in later periods. Overall guidance has a
large amplitude ridge with the H3 jet across the central CONUS.
Some point Friday all the guidance has the western extent of this
jet breakdown and form more of a zonal pattern across the southern
CONUS. At this time a H5 wave, in some guidance rather weak and
diffuse, tracks across the central US leading to cyclogenesis at
the surface. In many deterministic solutions, this low tracks
south of us leading to a mixed precip event across the area for
the weekend. The GFS seems to be the outlier with QPF where well
over an inch looks possible from this system. All that said, there
are still a few concerns about this forecast. 1. The system is
still way out over the pacific and not being sampled by RAOBs. 2.
The spread in the ensemble solutions highly suggests an unstable
forecast solution that is likely to change. 3. The jet energy and
PV anomaly in the guidance would lead to a weakening system as it
moves across the area. QPF would likely be lower in that scenario
than what other runs have. This is definitely a forecast period to
keep an eye on especially this being the weekend before Easter.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Brisk and gusty east to northeast winds associated with a low
pressure system moving into the Ohio River Valley will gradually
diminish and lose gustyness this evening. Winds are then expected
to remain northeast to north around 10 to 15 kts through Tuesday
with VFR conditions expected throughout.




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