Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 240844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
344 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

A strong early spring storm system if producing snow, heavy at times
across the northern 1/2 of the region with some thunder-snow noted.
Snow totals of 1 to over 3 inches have occurred with the system on
track to produce warning snow criteria over much of the region along
with gusty east winds into the evening. Below normal temperatures will
continue through the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Short term forecast confidence assessment...fair or average with main
concern is location of heavy, wet snow with the system the next 6-12
hours. many location snow totals could be 3 inches or more off with
main axis possible 20 miles or more further south a real possibility
with much less snow totals in NW Illinois a concern.

Today...a wet snow heavy at times with some thunder-snow this morning
to near the highway 34 corridor. Then rain mixing with snow or changing
to snow this afternoon in the south. Easterly winds up to 35 mph are
expected with some drifting of the snow in the north. Highs mostly
in the mid 30s north to the upper 30s south.

Tonight...the snow will diminish to flurries and end by mid evening
with an inch or less of additional accumulations expected. Clearing
expected north and northwest with mins with locations that receive
several inches of snow the mins may be at least 3 plus degrees too

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

A moderate rain or mostly rain event late Monday into Tuesday with
rain totals generally below and inch the main issue.

Long Term Forecast Assessment...fair or average with main issue is
temperatures in areas with new snow possibly few to several
degrees too mild a question until complete melting occurs by
Monday evening.

Sunday and Monday...fair and seasonably cool with highs 30s and
40s with lows mostly in the 20s on Monday morning.

Monday night and Tuesday...rain, possibly mixed with sleet early or
maybe isolated, brief freezing rain toward Tuesday AM possible.
Mostly moderate rain totals with some embedded, non-severe storms
possible. Highs in 50s and possibly low 60s with lows in the 30s.

Wednesday through Saturday...mostly fair and dry with slightly
below normal temperatures. Highs mostly 45 to 55 with lows mostly
in the 25 to 35 degree range.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Dynamic early spring storm to bring bouts of moderate to heavy
precipitation to the TAF sites into Saturday afternoon, with conditions
lowering to widespread MVFR/IFR with areas of LIFR/VLIFR. Expect
predominately snow at DBQ/CID/MLI with pockets of embedded thunder
and significant accumulations of 6-12+ inches. BRL will be mainly
rain/showers with some sleet through daybreak then expect with more
vigorous lift should see the precipitation change over to sleet/snow
with some accumulations. Expect the snow to gradually diminish
from north to south from mid afternoon into early evening. Have
gone with improvement to VFR over the last 3-6 hours of the TAF
cycle. Winds will remain strong from easterly at 20-30 kts through
much of the TAF cycle. Have low level wind shear with winds still
from ESE around 50-55 kts near 2kft agl overnight through Saturday AM.


IA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for Benton-

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Keokuk-

IL...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for Bureau-
     Carroll-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-Putnam-Rock Island-Whiteside.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Mercer-




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