Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 221958

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
258 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

20F plus dew point depressions underneath ample mid clouds
advecting across the FA in nwly flow overtop developing warm
front/surface boundary. This is well played by models, and it will
continue to see down the column saturation tonight, eventually
resulting in rain chances increasing in the forecast. The best
chances will focus along/in the vicinity of the boundary thru

As Plains energy spills in, resuring warm front will further
warm/moisten and ultimately destabilize the column. It`ll do so
enough for thunder to enter the mix, late Friday night into
Saturday. Marginal instability will cancel out shear aloft to make
for just slgt chance mention of what is general outlook thunder.
Heightening PWats will make heavy rain the primary hazard. Upwards
to an inch, to an inch and a quarter QPF, for our north/east,
where the boundary sets up, is forecast for the entirety of this
short term event that leads into the weekend.

Large temp range will continue across FA...from southwest to
northeast. It will be most pronounced as system winds up/makes
passage Saturday, with low 70s nudging into the Ozarks/ptns of
SEMO, and upper 40s/nr 50 in our farthest northeast counties. The
system/cold front`s passage Sat evening should finally equalize
that gradient as Lows drop toward/into the 30s for all.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

High confidence in an unsettled weather pattern for the last week of

The period starts off with the region under the influence of surface
high pressure and an upper level ridge on Sunday. Unfortunately,
this looks like the only dry day for the entire region through the

An amplified upper level flow pattern will take shape across the
country, and the upper level ridge over the region on Sunday will
slide eastward to the east coast by Tuesday. This is in response to
energy diving down into the Desert Southwest, causing troughing to
develop in that region. A prolonged period of southwest flow aloft
will be in place for our region.

At the surface, a warm front will lift back northward Sunday night
into Monday, with a quick return flow of moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico expected. Showers will first spread into southeast Missouri
Sunday night and then across the whole region on Monday. Enough
elevated instability appears present for thunder chances across
portions of the region Sunday night through Monday night,
particularly across western and southern counties.

Surface low pressure develops in the Central Plains on Monday, which
will lead to our area becoming more engulfed in the warm sector
Monday evening into Tuesday. During this time, the coverage of
showers and any storms appears lower across much of the region
except the northwest 1/3 or so. Model differences exist regarding
when to bring in the brunt of the precipitation. The GFS remains the
outlier in a faster solution on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. The
12z ECMWF brings in the heaviest rainfall Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Feel like the slower solution is still the way to go,
given the amplified pattern in place.

Rain chances look to continue Wednesday night into Thursday as the
front gets hung up over, or close to the region. Waves of energy
will continue to move through the southwest flow aloft. Highest rain
chances appear to be focused more across western Kentucky into the
bootheel of southeast Missouri by this time.

As far as QPF amounts, they have increased slightly from the
overnight forecast. Total rainfall for Sunday night through Thursday
afternoon is now in the 1 to 3 inch range from north to south.

Temperatures will start out below normal on Sunday with highs in the
50s. Afterwards, warmer air surges in with highs mostly in the upper
50s to 60s next week. Overnight lows will also warm into the 40s and
50s through much of the period.


Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Visible imagery/radar loops show mid cloud bases advecting across
KCGI/KPAH, along boundary laying out as expected. The column is so
dry below 700-750 mb, so it will take awhile (tonight) to
saturate on down the column. As that occurs, cigs gradually
lower, but remain VFR. This will remain the case, even as vicinity
showers develop by tmrw morning, with some scattered MVFR bases
showing up by then, namely during the planning period/tmrw
morning daylight hours.



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