Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 192009

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
309 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

The short-term forecast period will be dry, with continued clearing
skies this afternoon and evening from west to east, and sunny skies
for Sunday. This afternoon, the last of a cold front that brought
some showers and some isolated thunderstorms earlier this morning
will move off to the east, making way for high pressure to build
across the Dakotas. Skies will clear out from the northwest as drier
air pours into the region behind the front. The only exception for
cloud cover tonight will be along our southern tier of counties as a
band of mid-level positive vorticity advection ejects northward from
a shortwave trough progged to be situated over Nebraska. No
precipitation is anticipated from this band, but some mid- to high-
level clouds could develop over our southern tier of counties. Lows
tonight will be on the chilly side as the high builds in and brings
a good night of radiational cooling, with lows in the lower to
middle 30s. Quite a few locations will likely dip below freezing
tonight, especially areas along and north of the Iron Range and
along Highway 2 in northwest Wisconsin.

With high pressure overhead, the surface winds will be light in
nature, with sustained winds up to 5 to 10 mph. Despite deeper
mixing, with heights up to 4500 to 5500 feet per the NAM and GFS
soundings, the low-level wind profile is very weak, so little wind
to mix down to the surface. Probably the biggest focus for Sunday
will be the potential for a lake breeze to bring a wind shift and
cooler temperatures lakeside. Many of the model blends don`t
indicate a lake breeze setting up, but considering the abundant
sunshine expected for tomorrow, there should be one developing in
the late morning and afternoon hours. Highs tomorrow will be in the
upper 60s and lower 70s, except for some middle to upper 50s along
Lake Superior.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

An upper level shortwave will be situated across northern
Iowa/southern Minnesota early in the period, with upper level
ridging providing dry weather across the Northland. On Sunday night,
it looks to be dry across the region, with clear skies across the
north and some mid to high clouds across the south. The shortwave is
expected to slowly lift northeast into Wisconsin on Monday, and as a
result, we could see a few showers in northwest Wisconsin on Monday
and Monday night. Upper level heights are then expected to build on
Tuesday, with dry weather expected across the Northland. A shortwave
pushing out of the northern Plains on Tuesday night and Wednesday
will generally graze the south and west portions of the CWA, with a
better chance of showers and even a few thunderstorms from Thursday
into Friday night. The precipitation later in the period will be
from a northern stream shortwave that will move across the western
Great Lakes region. High temperatures throughout the period will
generally be in the 70s. Lows will range from the upper 30s to lower
40s early in the period, to the 40s and 50s later in the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

High pressure will build into the Northland, behind a departing
low pressure system and cold front. MVFR CIG`s will give way
to clearing and VFR conditions as the day wears on. There will be
some gusty winds for a time this afternoon, as winds remain north
to northeast. VFR conditions are expected to persist tonight.


DLH  35  69  42  71 /   0   0   0  10
INL  32  73  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  39  71  42  71 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  36  72  38  72 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  31  65  37  73 /   0   0   0  10




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